Markets Edge Lower as CPI Looms and Middle East Tensions Simmer
MarketDash
U.S. stock futures dipped Friday amid geopolitical friction and ahead of key inflation data, while a handful of stocks moved on earnings and deals.
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So, after a decent Thursday, the market decided to take a little breather Friday morning. Futures for the major indices were all in the red, which is what happens when you mix geopolitical uncertainty with the looming release of inflation data. It's a classic "wait and see" setup.
The tension du jour comes from the Middle East. According to Al Jazeera, Israel launched raids on towns in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, on a slightly different but related front, President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to call out Iran. His complaint? That Tehran isn't holding up its end of a bargain on oil shipments. "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz," Trump said. "That is not the agreement we have." So, you've got military action and diplomatic accusations—never a dull mix for the markets.
All this is happening while everyone's eyes are glued to the clock, waiting for the March consumer price index to drop at 8:30 a.m. ET. That number tends to set the tone, for better or worse.
In the background, the bond market was doing its thing. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.30%, with the two-year at 3.79%. And if you're wondering what the Fed might do next, the market's betting heavily—98.4% likely, per the CME's FedWatch tool—that they just sit tight on rates at their April meeting.
Market data indicates TSM maintains a strong price trend across short, medium, and long terms, with a solid growth score.
Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB) gained 0.84% after signing a deal for three additional Electron rocket missions with the Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space, Inc., scheduled to launch from New Zealand starting in 2028.
Market data shows RKLB with strong long- and medium-term trends, but a weak short-term trend.
Simulations Plus
Simulations Plus Inc. (SLP) soared 13.24% following better-than-expected Q2 results, though it did cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance for FY2026.
Market data points to a weak long- and medium-term price trend for SLP, but a strong short-term trend, alongside a poor quality score.
urban-gro
urban-gro Inc. (UGRO) surged 12.31% after outlining a new vertically integrated strategy targeting the global T20 cricket market, following its combination with Flash Sports & Media Inc. and Innovative Production Group Inc.
Market data indicates UGRO maintains a strong price trend across all time horizons.
Pony AI
Pony AI Inc. ADR (PONY) was up 1.49% after launching PonyWorld 2.0, a self-improving physical AI engine for autonomous driving.
Market data shows PONY with a weak price trend in the short, medium, and long terms.
Looking Back at Thursday
Thursday was a pretty good day, all things considered. Communication services, industrials, and consumer discretionary stocks led the charge, pushing most S&P 500 sectors higher. The exceptions were energy and health care, which closed in the red.
Index
Performance (+/-)
Value
Dow Jones
0.58%
48,185.80
S&P 500
0.62%
6,824.66
Nasdaq Composite
0.83%
22,822.42
Russell 2000
0.60%
2,636.31
What the Pros Are Saying
Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo, is still broadly optimistic about U.S. stocks for 2026, even with the early-year volatility and global conflicts. He thinks it'll be a year "where earnings and the S&P 500 Index climb once again to record highs while longer-term bond yields rise modestly."
But it's not all smooth sailing. The war in Iran has sent gasoline prices up 36%, which is a direct hit to consumer spending. Because of that, Wren has trimmed his U.S. growth forecast down to 2.6%. He also thinks stubborn inflation will keep the Fed from cutting rates, predicting they'll be "standing pat in 2026."
On the bright side, he sees offsetting positives: "strong artificial intelligence-related capital expenditures, tax rebates coming to consumers this spring as they file their returns, and substantial accumulated deregulation."
As for where to put money, Wren recently upgraded Information Technology to favorable because it "offers an attractive entry point," while downgrading Energy after it "appeared to outrun its fundamentals."
On the Economic Calendar
Friday's data docket is headlined by the big one:
March's consumer price index and core CPI data at 8:30 a.m. ET.
February's factory orders and April's preliminary consumer sentiment data at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Around the Markets
Over in commodities, crude oil futures were up 2.31% to around $100.13 a barrel in early New York trading. Gold, however, dipped 0.69% to about $4,732.84 an ounce. Its all-time high is still $5,595.46. The U.S. Dollar Index was slightly higher, up 0.10% at 98.9200.
In crypto, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 0.40% higher at $71,507.33.
Globally, Asian markets mostly closed higher Friday, with the exception of Australia's ASX 200. European markets were also trending upward in early trade.
