So here’s what happened in the markets on Thursday: things got a tiny bit less scary. Not good, mind you. Just slightly less terrifying than they were before. U.S. stocks managed to hold onto modest midday gains, and the reason was a fragile, tentative bit of diplomacy peeking through the clouds of a very tense Middle East.
The spark of optimism? Lebanon requested direct talks with Israel, and Israel agreed to engage. A senior Lebanese official said negotiations would need U.S. guarantees and start with a temporary ceasefire. It’s not peace, it’s not even a deal, but in a week where the Strait of Hormuz is shut and threats are flying, it’s at least a conversation. That was enough to give markets a little breathing room.
This fragile hope stood in contrast to other, more ominous signals. In a late-night post on Wednesday, President Donald Trump warned that all U.S. military assets would remain positioned near Iran "until such time as the real agreement reached is fully complied with." Tehran, meanwhile, accused Washington of breaching ceasefire terms and reiterated threats against vessels waiting to transit the closed Strait of Hormuz. So, you know, the usual cheerful backdrop.
In this environment, commodities did what you’d expect. WTI crude rose 3.8% to $98.01 per barrel, though it pared earlier gains after briefly reclaiming the $100 level. Gold rose 1.5% to $4,792 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand. And Bitcoin (BTC) added 1.5% to $71,170, perhaps acting as a digital version of the same hedge.
Across U.S. equities, gains were narrow but broadly distributed by midday. Consumer discretionary and industrials led, while software and cloud names were a big drag on growth indices.
The S&P 500 climbed 50 points, or 0.7%, to 6,833. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 317 points, or 0.7%, to 48,227. The Nasdaq 100 gained 175 points, or 0.7%, to 25,078. The Russell 2000 was up 0.6% at 2,637.
Thursday’s Performance In Major U.S. Indices
| Index | Last | % Change |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,833 | +0.7% |
| Dow Jones | 48,227 | +0.7% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 25,078 | +0.7% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,637 | +0.6% |
Updated by 12:15 PM ET
The major ETFs tracking these indices moved in lockstep: the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) gained 0.7%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) rose 0.7%, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) advanced 0.7%, and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) climbed 0.6%.
Software Tumbles On AI Threats
If the broader market was sighing with relief, the software sector was having a full-blown panic attack. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) was a notable laggard, falling 4.29% as enterprise software and cloud names faced broad selling pressure.
The selling followed a BTIG downgrade of Zscaler Inc. (ZS) from Buy to Neutral. But the real shock came from a note by Evercore warning that Anthropic’s Claude Mythos AI model could structurally pressure the cloud and cybersecurity sector over time. That sent Cloudflare Inc. (NET) down more than 11%. Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) fell 8.51% and Rubrik Inc. (RBRK) shed 8.33%.
It’s one of those classic tech moments: a new, potentially disruptive technology (in this case, advanced AI) emerges, and suddenly investors start wondering if the old guard’s business model is about to be obsoleted. The market’s answer on Thursday was a swift and decisive "maybe, sell first and ask questions later."
Not all tech was suffering, however. Among the Magnificent Seven stocks, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) surged 5.6%. The catalyst was CEO Andy Jassy’s annual shareholder letter, which disclosed that AWS artificial intelligence services hit a $15 billion annual revenue run rate in the first quarter, while its custom chips business crossed $20 billion. Cantor Fitzgerald liked what it saw, raising its price target on Amazon to $260 and maintaining an Overweight rating.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March meeting. The key takeaway? A growing share of policymakers are increasingly concerned that war-driven energy shocks could reignite inflationary pressures. It’s a reminder that even if diplomacy makes progress, the economic fallout from conflict can have a long tail.
Thursday’s Russell 1000 Top Gainers
Thursday’s Russell 1000 Top Losers
So to sum up Thursday’s mood: markets are clinging to any sign of geopolitical de-escalation, even as underlying tensions remain high. Oil is off its peaks but still expensive, gold is shining, and tech investors are suddenly very worried about what the next generation of AI means for today’s software giants. It’s not exactly calm, but for a moment, it was slightly less chaotic.
