So here's the thing about Meta Platforms (META) right now: the stock has pulled back, and some analysts think that's your cue to buy. The company heads into its first-quarter earnings with what looks like strong growth momentum, but investors are trying to figure out whether all those AI-driven gains can actually offset the rising costs of, well, building all that AI.
In a note published Wednesday, BNP Paribas Equity Research senior analyst Nick Jones laid out a pretty constructive view of Meta ahead of those Q1 2026 numbers, which should land sometime in the final week of April. The firm is sticking with its Outperform rating and has a price target of $955. That implies about 66% upside from where the stock closed on Monday at $575. Yes, there's been some volatility lately, but BNP Paribas thinks Meta is still positioned to deliver solid results, thanks mostly to what they call "sustained top-line momentum."
What Everyone's Watching
If you're trying to figure out what matters for this earnings report, there are a few big things on the checklist. First, everyone's talking about capital expenditure—how much Meta is spending, and what that does to both revenue growth and profit margins. Then there's the progress on all those artificial intelligence initiatives, like the Llama models and the broader AI strategy. Oh, and don't forget the ongoing restructuring efforts, plus whatever management has to say about the latest legal and regulatory developments. It's a full plate.
The Numbers Game
Right now, Meta's forward price-to-earnings multiple is trading below its six-month average. That basically means investors are being a bit cautious. They're worried about whether earnings can keep up, how much all that capital spending will cost, how Meta stacks up against competitors in AI, and, of course, the general state of the economy.
BNP Paribas has its own numbers, and they're pretty optimistic. The firm expects first-quarter revenue to grow 32% to 33% year over year. That's above the consensus estimate of 30.8%. On the bottom line, they're projecting GAAP diluted earnings per share to come in above $7.00, compared with the $6.65 that analysts on average are expecting.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, BNP Paribas thinks Meta's revenue guidance will land somewhere between $58 billion and $61 billion. The consensus is sitting at $59.6 billion, so that range looks reasonable.
And back to that capital expenditure debate: investors are widely expecting Meta to guide for 2026 capex in the range of $115 billion to $135 billion. The consensus estimate is around $124 billion, so anything in that ballpark would be roughly in line with expectations.
People Are Still Sticking Around
Here's something interesting: Meta's user base is still growing. Yes, the company already has more than 3 billion daily active users across the globe. But both monthly and daily active users are still increasing at mid- to high-single-digit rates. That's not nothing when you're already that big.
Engagement is still dominant, too. Time spent on Meta's platforms accounts for more than 40% of total time spent across all the major social media platforms. That's nearly double the time spent on its closest competitor. So even with all the new apps and platforms out there, people are still spending a lot of their screen time in Meta's world.
The Investment Case
BNP Paribas expects Meta to deliver strong financial performance, supported by what they see as increasing monetization of AI-driven products and continued gains in advertising market share.
Sure, capital expenditure is expected to stay elevated. But the firm believes Meta's revenue trajectory should be strong enough to absorb those investments over time. Against that backdrop, BNP Paribas views the recent pullback in Meta's stock as a buying opportunity. Hence the reiterated Outperform rating.
As for the stock itself: Meta Platforms shares were up 3.12% at $593.02 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to market data.
