So gold had a rough March. It dropped 12% to around $4,690, which was its worst monthly decline since 2008. That sounds alarming, right? You'd think big buyers might pause. But here's the thing: they didn't. Not even a little.
According to a new study from EBC Financial Group, the BRICS+ bloc—you know, the group led by Russia and China—just kept stacking gold. They now control more than 6,000 tons of the stuff, which is 17.4% of global reserves. That's a big jump from 11.2% back in 2019. For these nations, gold isn't a trade; it's a "sovereign shield," a way to protect themselves from sanctions risk and the declining influence of the U.S. dollar.
"This is not speculative demand, it is policy," EBC analyst Michael Harris noted, according to reports. And that's the key to understanding what's happening here.
Buying the Dip, Sovereign-Style
So why did gold fall so hard in March? A few reasons. An energy shock renewed inflation fears, which basically erased expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut rates soon. That put pressure on the market to sell winners to support other positions. Plus, retail leverage didn't help—according to the Atlantic Council, retail market borrowing hit a record $1.2 trillion by the end of last year.
When portfolios get overstretched, forced deleveraging happens, and it's systematic. Liquidation doesn't discriminate.
But here's the twist: while markets were selling, China's central bank was buying. It extended its gold buying streak to 17 consecutive months, adding roughly 5 tons. This divergence highlights what Harris calls a "structural floor" in the market. Central banks are now absorbing about 20% of annual mine supply, creating consistent demand that cushions price declines.
"The buying has been one-directional and price-insensitive, meaning sovereign purchasers absorb supply regardless of whether gold trades at $4,000 or $5,000," Harris noted.
Think about that. For these buyers, the priority isn't timing the market to buy low. It's securing physical reserves in domestic vaults. The price is almost irrelevant.
The Dollar's Slow Fade and the Saudi Wild Card
This all ties into a bigger story: the dollar's dominance is slowly eroding. IMF data shows its share of global reserves has fallen to 57%—that's a 30-year low. Meanwhile, a 2025 World Gold Council survey found that 73% of central bankers expect it to remain lower over the next five years.
For Harris, this decline isn't really about active selling of dollars. It's about faster growth in alternatives, especially gold. The BRICS+ bloc, led by Russia and China (who together hold roughly 74% of the bloc's gold), has effectively created a blueprint that others are now following.
And then there's the potential "wild card": Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom has allocated just 2.6% of its reserves to gold. That's not much.
"A move to just 5% gold allocation would require purchases equivalent to the entire projected central bank demand for 2026 from a single buyer," Harris wrote.
Let that sink in. If Saudi Arabia decided to move a little more of its reserves into gold, it could single-handedly soak up all the gold that central banks were expected to buy next year. That would dramatically tighten global supply and further solidify support for gold prices, no matter what short-term headwinds pop up.
On the price front, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is up 8.42% year-to-date, showing that despite March's stumble, the longer-term trend still has some momentum.
