So, here’s what happened: the stock market decided to have a very good Wednesday. After a mixed close on Tuesday, futures for all the major indices shot up, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both gaining over 2%. The catalyst? President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on strikes with Iran, which tends to make investors breathe a little easier.
President Trump said on Tuesday that the U.S. had won a "total and complete victory" after striking the ceasefire deal, projecting confidence that this truce could lead to something bigger. Of course, it’s not quite that simple. Iran was quick to point out that this doesn’t mean the conflict is over. Tehran has told its military to stop firing, but also warned that "our fingers are on the trigger; any mistake by the enemy will be met with a full-scale response." So, maybe think of it as a very tense pause.
Meanwhile, in the bond market, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 4.24% and the two-year was at 3.71%. And according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 98.4% chance that the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at its April meeting. So, no rate cuts on the immediate horizon.
Here’s a quick look at how the major indices were performing:
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | 2.25% |
| S&P 500 | 2.46% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 3.25% |
| Russell 2000 | 3.59% |
The big ETFs were moving right along with them. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, was up 2.57% at $676.17 in premarket trading. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), tracking the Nasdaq 100, advanced 3.37% to $608.45.
Stocks Making Moves
Let’s talk about some of the individual stocks that were having a particularly interesting day.
SoFi Technologies
SoFi Technologies Inc. (SOFI) jumped 8.38%. The company has been seeing significant market activity following last week’s launch of its big business banking platform, which aims to handle both traditional fiat and crypto banking on a single regulated platform. Market data indicates that SOFI maintains a weak price trend in the short, medium, and long terms, but it does have a solid growth score.
Uber Technologies and Amazon
Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) gained 4.15%. The ride-hailing giant is scaling on Amazon.com Inc.'s (AMZN) AWS to help power millions of daily trips and train its AI models. Market data shows UBER maintains a weak trend across all time frames, with a moderate value ranking.
Alibaba Group Holding
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) advanced 7.58%. The Chinese tech giant deployed a massive 10,000-chip AI cluster in China, which is part of its strategy to strengthen domestic semiconductor capabilities and accelerate its integrated AI ecosystem. Market data indicates BABA has a weak price trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a poor quality score.
Levi Strauss
Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) surged 10.13% after reporting first-quarter results. The company posted revenue of $1.74 billion, beating analyst estimates of $1.65 billion. Adjusted earnings came in at 42 cents per share, also topping estimates of 37 cents per share. Market data shows LEVI maintains a strong price trend over the long, short, and medium terms, with a good growth score.
Paramount Skydance
Paramount Skydance Corp. (PSKY) rose 3.58%. The company received a $24 billion equity commitment from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and increased its authorized Class B shares to 7 billion, which allows the board to declare dividends independently of Class A stock. Market data indicates PSKY has a weak price trend in the short, medium, and long terms, but a solid value score.
Looking Back at Tuesday
On Tuesday, the market closed mixed. Consumer discretionary, energy, and information technology stocks posted the largest gains, with half of the S&P 500 sectors finishing positively. On the flip side, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and materials declined.
Here’s how the indices settled:
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Dow Jones | -0.18% | 46,584.46 |
| S&P 500 | 0.076% | 6,616.85 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 0.098% | 22,017.85 |
| Russell 2000 | 0.17% | 2,544.94 |
What the Analysts Are Saying
Professor Jeremy Siegel has a "Long-Term Bullish, Near-Term Cautious" outlook for the U.S. economy and stock market. He thinks the economy is structurally strong, but warns the path forward will be "bumpier until we see a lasting and real break in the geopolitical pressures"—even with this temporary two-week truce.
He points to a few things that are making the immediate outlook tricky:
- Labor Strength: The March jobs report showed robust payroll growth and a lower unemployment rate, suggesting the labor market is "too firm to support any near-term case for Fed easing."
- Inflationary Pressures: Rising energy prices from the geopolitical conflict and a recent jump in M2 money supply growth have put the Federal Reserve in a "far less comfortable position."
- Earnings Risk: Siegel cautions that current market valuations might be a bit deceptive. He notes that "consensus forecasts often lag reality during fast-moving macro shocks," and earnings estimates could soon drop to reflect higher input costs.
Because of all this, Siegel thinks a rate cut is increasingly unlikely and that investors should prepare for higher real rates in the short run.
What’s on the Calendar
Here’s what investors will be watching on Wednesday:
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at 1:05 p.m. ET.
- The minutes from the Fed’s May FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Commodities, Crypto, and Global Markets
Over in the commodity world, crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session, down 15.30% to around $95.67 per barrel. Gold, however, was up 1.84% to hover around $4,792.64 per ounce. Its last record high was $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.99% lower at 98.8710.
Bitcoin was trading 4.13% higher at $71,683.27 per coin over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets closed higher on Wednesday, with gains in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, China's CSI 300, Australia's ASX 200, India's Nifty 50, South Korea's Kospi, and Japan's Nikkei 225. European markets were also higher in early trade.
