The Magnificent Seven Are Cracking – And Goldman Sachs Says That's a 50-Year Buying Opportunity
MarketDash
Goldman Sachs argues the tech selloff has created a valuation window not seen since the 1970s, with the sector's PEG ratio now below the global market. Here's what broke the trade and why it might be time to look again.
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Remember that one trade that worked for, like, a decade? The one where you just bought the big tech names and the companies spending a fortune on AI? Yeah, that one's breaking down.
And according to Goldman Sachs, that breakdown has opened up something we haven't seen in a generation: a chance to buy tech stocks when they're not just beaten up, but actually look cheap.
In a research note published Tuesday, Goldman's equity strategy team, led by Peter Oppenheimer, made the case that the selloff in tech giants has created a valuation opportunity that hasn't existed since the 1970s. It's not just a minor dip; it's a fundamental reset.
"Confidence in the so-called Magnificent 7's ability to outperform the rest of the U.S. market forever has started to be questioned, leading to falling stock correlations and rising dispersion between the dominant companies," Oppenheimer noted.
The underperformance started even before the recent geopolitical tensions. Since the beginning of 2025 and leading up to the onset of the Iran war, U.S. equities had already begun to lag other major regions. But for tech, it's been especially brutal.
Goldman's analysis of returns data going back to 1973 shows the current period ranks among the weakest on record for World Tech versus World ex-TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecom). It's sitting at or near the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. In plain English: tech stocks have rarely underperformed the rest of the world this badly over any comparable stretch in the past half-century.
Where The Magnificent Seven Stand Today
Let's look at the numbers. The table below shows how far each member is from its all-time high and its year-to-date return. Spoiler: it's not pretty.
Company
Below ATH %
YTD Return
NVIDIA Corporation
–17.19%
–5.78%
Apple Inc.
–13.40%
–7.98%
Alphabet Inc.
–14.09%
–4.07%
Microsoft Corporation
–33.23%
–23.14%
Amazon.com, Inc.
–18.11%
–8.25%
Meta Platforms, Inc.
–28.53%
–13.71%
Tesla, Inc.
–31.46%
–23.98%
All seven are in the red for the year, and some, like Microsoft and Tesla, are down more than 20%. That's the kind of pain that makes investors question their life choices.
The PEG Ratio Just Reset to Levels That Don't Normally Exist
Here's where it gets interesting for value hunters. Goldman points to the PEG ratio as the clearest signal. The PEG ratio divides a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple by expected earnings growth. It's a way to see if you're paying a fair price for growth.
"The underperformance of the technology sector is also starting to generate attractive valuation opportunities for investors as its valuation, relative to expected consensus growth, has fallen below that of the global aggregate market," Oppenheimer said.
Two big things happened at once. First, the U.S. equity market's PEG premium relative to the rest of the world has compressed sharply. For years, investors paid up for "U.S. exceptionalism." That premium has shrunk.
Second, and more startling, the technology sector's own PEG has now fallen *below* the global aggregate market. This is a historically rare inversion. Think about what that means: investors are being paid *less* (in terms of valuation relative to growth) to own the fastest-growing sector than they are to own the broader market. That's the kind of mispricing that gets value investors excited.
What Broke The Magnificent Seven Trade: Three Structural Headwinds
So, what went wrong? Goldman's strategists point to three main forces that have driven this de-rating since 2025.
1. The AI Capex Doubt. The massive surge in capital expenditure by hyperscalers (the cloud giants building AI infrastructure) has raised serious investor questions about who will actually capture the returns. Goldman draws a direct parallel to historical infrastructure booms—like steam engines, railways, and the early internet—where huge amounts of capital were deployed to build the foundational tech, but the big profits often went to companies that came later and built applications on top.
"The history of technology breakthroughs, from the steam engine to railways, PCs and the internet, is littered with examples of new technologies that attracted large sums of capital to build out underlying infrastructure which have led, ultimately, to low returns," Oppenheimer said. "The gains are then enjoyed by other companies, many of which piggyback off the original investment."
Investors are starting to worry the AI wave might follow the same script. What if NVIDIA sells all the shovels, but the real gold rush profits go to someone else?
2. The End of U.S. Exceptionalism. As mentioned, the valuation premium for U.S. stocks has compressed. The world is catching up, or at least the market is deciding the gap shouldn't be so wide.
3. Geopolitical Shock as an Interest Rate Story. The ongoing war in Iran initially hit markets as an inflation and interest rate shock. Tech stocks, as long-duration assets (their value is based on profits far in the future), are super sensitive to rising rates. When rates go up on inflation fears, tech gets hammered. That's been a major weight on the sector.
Why The Iran War May Paradoxically Favor Big Tech
Now for the counterintuitive twist. Goldman argues the Iran conflict could eventually swing from being a headwind for tech to a potential tailwind.
Here's the logic: So far, the market has priced the war primarily as an inflation shock (bad for tech). But Goldman's asset allocation team notes that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz drags on, the narrative could morph into a perceived *growth* shock. A deep growth scare would likely limit how high interest rates can rise.
"Given the relative insensitivity of cash flows in the technology sector to economic growth, and the benefit it would derive on any rally in bond yields, this sector might prove to be more defensive over the next few months," the bank wrote.
Translation: If the market gets more worried about recession than inflation, bond yields might fall. Falling yields are rocket fuel for long-duration tech stocks. Plus, tech earnings are somewhat insulated from a cyclical slowdown. So, paradoxically, a worsening growth outlook could make tech look like a safer harbor.
It's a complex setup. The sector that drove the market for a decade is now out of favor to a historic degree, yet it's still expected to generate the vast majority of S&P 500 earnings growth this quarter. The valuation math has shifted dramatically. Whether this is a trap or a generational opportunity depends on if you believe the growth story is intact and if the market has overcorrected on fear. Goldman's team is leaning toward the latter, suggesting the cracks in the Magnificent Seven might just be letting the light in.
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