Shares of Pony AI Inc. (PONY) ticked higher in Tuesday's premarket trading. Here's why: the company is one step closer to putting its self-driving cars on public roads—in Singapore, at least, and only if you get an invitation.
The company said Tuesday it has received regulatory approval to begin by-invite robotaxi rides in Singapore. Think of it as the final dress rehearsal before the big public premiere. The service, operated with its partner ComfortDelGro, will run on a 12-kilometer route in the Punggol area, connecting homes to commercial hubs and transit points. The company says the route could save commuters up to 15 minutes of travel time.
This is a key milestone for Pony.ai's so-called "dual-engine" strategy, which aims to scale its autonomous mobility business both in China and overseas. The Singapore program launched in September 2025 as part of this global push. CEO James Peng said the move "brings the service closer to real-world commuting use." During this invite-only phase, selected users will test the service while the company and regulators fine-tune operations for a full public rollout.
So, the technology is moving forward. The stock's recent journey, however, has been a bit rockier.
Technical Analysis
Let's look under the hood. At $8.94, the stock is trading 17% below its 20-day simple moving average of $10.78, which suggests a bearish short-term trend. It's also down nearly 30% from its 50-day moving average of $12.75, pointing to continued weakness.
But there's a potential silver lining: the relative strength index (RSI) is sitting at 30.32, which is near oversold territory. That often hints at a possible rebound if buyers decide to step in. Over the past 12 months, the stock is still up 37%, showing a recovery from lower levels.
- Key Resistance: $10.00 — a round number that often acts as a psychological barrier where selling might pick up.
- Key Support: $8.00 — a level where bargain hunters could potentially show up to halt further declines.
Pony.ai's progress in Singapore underscores its commitment to international expansion, positioning it as a player in the global race for autonomous driving.
Earnings & Analyst Outlook
The company is expected to report its next financial results on May 19, 2026. The estimates tell a familiar growth story for a tech company: losing more money per share while bringing in more revenue.
- EPS Estimate: Loss of 13 cents (wider than the prior loss of 10 cents)
- Revenue Estimate: $21.96 million (up from $13.98 million)
Despite the expected losses, Wall Street analysts are generally bullish. The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $21.17—that's more than double the current price. Recent analyst moves include:
- HSBC: Initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $16.60 target on March 31.
- Barclays: Rates the stock Equal-Weight and lowered its target to $10.00 on March 30.
- Barclays: Had previously initiated coverage with an Equal-Weight rating and a $15.00 target back on December 17, 2025.
Top ETF Exposure
For investors who prefer baskets over individual stocks, Pony.ai pops up in a couple of thematic ETFs:
- SPDR S&P Kensho Smart Mobility ETF (HAIL): 2.34% Weight
- Roundhill Robotaxi, Autonomous Vehicles & Technology ETF (CABZ): 4.36% Weight
Why does this matter? Because Pony.ai carries meaningful weight in these funds. Significant money flowing into or out of these ETFs forces automatic buying or selling of PONY shares to match the fund's composition. It's a mechanical relationship that can move the stock independently of company-specific news.
Price Action
Putting it all together, Pony AI shares were up 0.11% at $8.97 during premarket trading on Tuesday. The company is methodically checking boxes for its global robotaxi ambitions, starting with an exclusive test in Singapore. Investors, meanwhile, are weighing that long-term potential against a stock chart that currently looks tired and analyst expectations that see a much brighter future.
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