Here's a way to turn geopolitical tension into a contract: Ondas Inc. (ONDS) announced Monday that its subsidiary, 4M Defense, just won a competitive tender for a large-scale demining project. The award is part of a much bigger picture—Israel's $1.7 billion effort to fortify about 500 kilometers of its eastern border.

The broader program isn't just about building a wall. It's a modernization push, leaning on advanced tech like robotics, sensors, and autonomous systems to secure the frontier. 4M Defense's piece of this puzzle is expected to be worth more than $50 million, starting with AI-driven robots clearing mines in tough terrain to prep areas for construction.

"4M Defense is a clear example of how we are converting targeted investments into operational programs that expand our backlog and position us for continued growth," said Eric Brock, chairman and CEO of Ondas. "Importantly, it also establishes a foundation for broader land-based intelligence capabilities that can be integrated into our multi-domain, systems-of-systems architecture as these programs evolve."

This isn't the company's first rodeo in the region. It follows a $30 million demining contract announced back in February 2026, tied to a multi-year land clearance program along the Israel-Syria border. Ondas described that effort as one of the largest demining operations ever undertaken in Israel. The strategy appears to be bundling everything from monitoring and intelligence to post-conflict cleanup into a comprehensive border security package.

What's the Stock Doing?

So, the company is landing big government contracts in a critical defense sector. What does the market think? As of Monday, the stock was trading at $9.60, essentially flat on the day. But the technical picture tells a more nuanced story.

The stock is currently trading below its key moving averages—about 9.8% below its 100-day simple moving average and 4.1% below its 200-day average. That typically suggests some bearish pressure in the intermediate term. Yet, zoom out and the view changes dramatically. Over the last 12 months, Ondas shares have skyrocketed 1018.60%. It's currently sitting between a 52-week high of $15.28 and a low of 66 cents, which means it's come a long way up but has also pulled back from its peak.

For traders watching the levels, $10.00 looks like a key resistance point to break, while $9.00 could serve as a support level where buyers might step in.

Earnings on the Horizon and What the Analysts Think

The next financial checkpoint is coming up. Ondas is slated to report earnings on May 14, 2026. The estimates hint at a company in transition: analysts expect a loss of 4 cents per share, which is an improvement from a loss of 15 cents a year earlier. More strikingly, revenue is projected to leap to $39.44 million from just $4.25 million.

The analyst community is largely bullish. The stock carries a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $15.56. Recent moves include Northland Capital Markets raising its target to $18.00 with an Outperform rating in late March, and Needham maintaining a Buy rating with a $23.00 target around the same time.

ETF Exposure: The Automatic Buyer (or Seller)

Here's a mechanical detail that can move the stock: Ondas has meaningful weight in a few exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This means the stock doesn't just trade on its own news; it can also get pushed around by money flowing into or out of these funds.

The main ETFs holding Ondas are the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) with a 1.98% weight, the State Street SPDR S&P Telecom ETF (XTL) with a 4.25% weight, and the State Street SPDR S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF (KOMP) with a 0.81% weight. Significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs could force fund managers to automatically buy or sell Ondas shares to match their indices.

Ondas shares were down 0.05% at $9.60 at the time of publication on Monday, according to market data.