If SpaceX ever decides to go public, it won't just be the most anticipated initial public offering in years. It would be stepping straight into a market that's still haunted by the class of 2021. Because the last time IPOs were booming, they didn't just disappoint investors—they destroyed value on a massive scale.
For Elon Musk, a SpaceX IPO could become the ultimate test of whether blockbuster public offerings can still deliver for shareholders, or whether they're doomed to repeat the mistakes of 2021.
The IPO Graveyard
According to reports, many of the companies that rushed to go public during the 2021 frenzy have since collapsed in spectacular fashion.
Allbirds, Inc. (BIRD), once valued at $2.2 billion, is now being sold for just $39 million. BuzzFeed, Inc. (BZFD) has seen its market capitalization shrink to roughly $23 million from over $1 billion at its debut, raising concerns about its ability to continue as a going concern.
Others didn't fare much better. Rent the Runway, Inc. (RENT) lost control to lenders. Stocks like UiPath, Inc. (PATH), GitLab Inc. (GTLB), and Warby Parker Inc (WRBY) are still trading 70%–80% below their IPO levels.
The pattern was painfully clear: overvaluation, peak timing, and slowing growth—often all hitting at once.
A Different Kind of IPO
That's what makes SpaceX different—and risky in a different way.
Unlike many of the 2021 names, SpaceX isn't coming public at peak hype with an unproven business model. It's a scaled, revenue-generating company with global relevance and actual rockets that fly. But that doesn't mean investors will forget what happened last time around. If anything, it raises the bar even higher.
Trust, Not Just Demand
The real question isn't whether SpaceX can attract demand. Of course it can—it's SpaceX.
The question is whether investors—especially retail investors—are willing to trust another high-profile IPO after years of watching similar stories underperform. Because the lesson from 2021 wasn't subtle: growth narratives can be incredibly compelling. Actual returns, less so.
SpaceX might be the exception. It has real technology, real contracts, and real revenue. But if it goes public, it will still have to prove one thing the last cycle couldn't: that IPO investors can actually win again.
