So, Li Auto (LI) had a pretty good March. The Chinese electric vehicle maker reported it delivered 41,053 vehicles last month. That's up 12% from a year ago and, more impressively, a 55% leap from February. That's the kind of sequential pop that gets investors' attention, and sure enough, the stock was up over 4% in premarket trading Wednesday.
But here's the thing about monthly delivery numbers: they're a snapshot. Zoom out to the first quarter, and the picture gets a bit fuzzier. Li Auto delivered 95,142 vehicles in Q1. That's a modest 2.45% increase from the first quarter of 2025, but it's actually down 12.9% from the fourth quarter of last year. So, while March was strong, the quarter as a whole lost some momentum. The company has now delivered over 1.63 million vehicles cumulatively, which is a serious scale.
This isn't just about moving metal off lots, though. Li Auto is building out the whole ecosystem. It now has 517 retail stores and 552 service centers across China, plus it's built a network of more than 4,000 supercharging stations. On the tech side, the company is pushing into AI, recently introducing its MindVLA autonomous driving model. Looking ahead, it plans to launch an updated version of its Li L9 model in the second quarter. And in a show of confidence (or perhaps a desire to support the stock), the board has approved a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion through 2027.
Of course, in the EV game, you're only as good as your last month compared to the other guys. So, how do the peers stack up?
XPeng (XPEV) delivered 27,415 vehicles in March. That was a huge 80% jump from February, but it was down 17% from March 2025. For the first quarter, XPeng's deliveries fell 33.3% year-over-year to 62,682 units.
Then there's Nio (NIO), which is having a moment. It delivered 35,486 vehicles in March, which is a staggering 136% increase from a year ago. For Q1, its deliveries nearly doubled, up 98.3% to 83,465 units. So, in the March snapshot, Nio is the growth leader by a wide margin, though Li Auto still delivered more total vehicles.
Now, to the stock. The recent pop has Li Auto trading 6.3% above its 20-day moving average and 5.4% above its 100-day. That suggests some improving near-term momentum. But the longer-term trend is still a problem. The stock is down 30.46% over the past 12 months and remains 13.2% below its 200-day moving average. A "death cross"—where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day—happened back in September, cementing the bearish bigger-picture trend. So, any rally still faces a wall of overhead resistance.
All eyes now turn to the next earnings report, estimated for May 28. The expectations aren't exactly rosy. Analysts are forecasting earnings per share of 7 cents, down from 13 cents a year ago, and revenue of $3.14 billion, down from $3.57 billion. At a P/E ratio of 114, the stock carries a premium valuation, which makes those declining estimates a tougher pill to swallow.
The analyst community reflects this caution. The consensus rating on the stock is a Hold, with an average price target of $24.69. Recent moves have been defensive: JP Morgan has an Underweight rating (though it raised its target to $15.50), Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold in January, and Citigroup maintains a Neutral. It's not a chorus of bulls.
So, what do you have? A company that nailed March, is building out its infrastructure, and is buying back its own stock. But it's also coming off a softer quarter, facing ferocious competition from a surging Nio, and its stock is still climbing out of a deep hole with skeptical analysts watching from the sidelines. The March delivery number is a good start, but it's just one lap in a very long race.
