Markets Bounce on Hints of Peace, But Earnings Drama Steals the Show
MarketDash
Futures rose as President Trump suggested a quick end to the Iran conflict, but the real action was in individual stocks like Nike and RH, which tumbled on earnings news.
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Here's a fun thing about markets: sometimes they react more to the promise of something ending than to the thing itself. U.S. stock futures were pointing higher Wednesday morning, and the main catalyst seemed to be the suggestion that the recent military conflict with Iran might be winding down. President Donald Trump said the U.S. could end its campaign "within two or three weeks," adding that Iran wouldn't need to agree to any terms for the withdrawal to proceed. Over in Iran, President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country is open to ending hostilities, but only if it gets formal security guarantees against future attacks. The White House said Trump would provide an update in a televised address Wednesday night.
So, with the geopolitical cloud potentially lifting, futures got a boost. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.57% and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) advanced 0.78% in premarket trading. The bond market was relatively calm, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.27%. Traders are virtually certain (99.5% sure, according to the CME FedWatch Tool) that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.
Index
Performance (+/-)
Dow Jones
0.52%
S&P 500
0.50%
Nasdaq 100
0.72%
Russell 2000
0.70%
The Earnings Roller Coaster
But if you looked beyond the index futures, you saw the real drama: a classic earnings-season mix of triumph and despair.
Nike (NKE)
Let's start with a head-scratcher. Nike Inc. (NKE) reported better-than-expected third-quarter results amid its ongoing turnaround strategy. The logical reaction? The stock dropped 9.31% in premarket trading. Sometimes the market is a tough crowd. It seems investors were focused on the broader challenges. Market data indicates NKE maintains a weak price trend across short, medium, and long timeframes with a poor growth score.
RH (RH)
The luxury home furnishings retailer RH (RH) had a much clearer reason for its plunge. It reported worse-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issued sales guidance for fiscal year 2026 that fell below estimates. The stock was down a brutal 19.10%. Market data shows RH maintains a weak trend across all timeframes with a poor value score.
nCino (NCNO)
On the sunny side of the street, we have nCino Inc. (NCNO). The cloud banking software company jumped 16.89% after reporting a strong fourth quarter. Its non-GAAP earnings per share beat analyst estimates by nearly 147%, and it unveiled a $100 million accelerated share repurchase program. That's the kind of report that gets a standing ovation.
Beyond Meat (BYND)
Back to the disappointment department. Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) dropped 10.21% after missing estimates. Its full-year revenue of $275.5 million was down 15.6% year-over-year. Market data indicates BYND maintains a weak price trend over the short, long, and medium terms.
AT&T (T)
Even AT&T Inc. (T) was down slightly (0.76%) in premarket trading. This came despite the company signing a deal to invest about $1 billion to improve the Commerce Department's FirstNet network, a move expected to deliver $1 billion in cost savings. Interestingly, market data shows T maintains a strong price trend across all timeframes with a moderate quality score, so the dip might just be noise.
Looking Back: Tuesday's Rebound
Wednesday's early optimism followed a sharp rebound on Tuesday. Communication services, consumer discretionary, and information technology stocks led the S&P 500's gains, though energy and utilities closed lower. It was a broad-based rally.
Index
Performance (+/-)
Value
Dow Jones
2.49%
46,341.51
S&P 500
2.91%
6,528.52
Nasdaq Composite
3.83%
21,590.63
Russell 2000
3.41%
2,496.37
The Analyst View: A Call for Caution
Not everyone is ready to declare the coast clear. Analyst Jeremy Siegel maintains a cautious outlook, primarily due to those same geopolitical tensions and rising bond yields. He notes the domestic economy is "reasonably sound" with constructive labor data, but the external shock from the Strait of Hormuz has created a "risk-premium story, driven by energy, long rates, and uncertainty."
On the Fed, Siegel has an interesting take: with the 10-year Treasury yield having risen toward 4.60%, the "bond market is effectively doing the tightening for them." So, while a Fed rate hike is unlikely, the urgency for immediate cuts has "weakened materially."
For stock investors, Siegel advises short-term caution, stating, "the path of least resistance is still lower." He thinks a prolonged energy crisis could lead to a mid-teens drawdown for the S&P 500, though he does "not view this as the start of a full-scale U.S. bear market." His advice? Until energy markets stabilize, investors should "remain defensive" and "expect more volatility."
What's on Tap Wednesday
Investors have a full plate of economic data to digest:
February's delayed U.S. retail sales and retail sales minus autos data, along with March's ADP jobs data, will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at 9:05 a.m., Fed governor Michael Barr will speak at 9:10 a.m., and March's S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI will be out by 9:45 a.m. ET.
March's ISM manufacturing data and January's delayed business inventories report will both be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.
Around the Markets
In other asset classes, the picture was mixed:
Crude oil futures, perhaps reacting to the potential de-escalation with Iran, were trading lower by 2.43% to around $98.92 per barrel.
Gold, often a safe-haven play, rose 1.37% to hover around $4,730.22 per ounce. Its last record high was $5,595.46. The U.S. Dollar Index was 0.50% lower.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 2.73% higher at $68,706.43.
Global equity markets were mostly higher. Asian markets closed up, and European markets were also higher in early trade.
So, Wednesday shaped up to be a day where macro hopes (peace?) battled micro realities (earnings). The market was trying to decide which story to believe.
