Here's a classic corporate drama playing out at 35,000 feet: Delta Air Lines (DAL) just picked a side in the satellite internet wars, and it's not the obvious one. The airline has signed a deal with Amazon.com Inc.'s (AMZN) Project Kuiper—often referred to as "Leo"—to bring low-Earth orbit satellite Wi-Fi to 500 of its aircraft starting in 2028. In doing so, it passed on Elon Musk's SpaceX and its far more established Starlink service.
The timing is, shall we say, interesting. This news lands just as SpaceX is reportedly moving toward filing for what could be the largest initial public offering in history. So, Delta is essentially betting on Jeff Bezos' satellite startup over Musk's operational giant right as Musk's company is trying to convince the public markets it's worth something like $1.75 trillion.
Why Pick the New Kid on the Orbital Block?
So why would Delta choose Amazon's project, which is still in its infancy, over Starlink, which already has over 10,000 satellites buzzing around Earth and more than 10 million paying subscribers? The official reason is relationship status. Delta already uses Amazon Web Services (AWS) to power a lot of its internal systems, so there's an existing corporate partnership and, presumably, some favorable terms or integrated tech promises.
The service itself promises download speeds up to 1 gigabit per second per aircraft and, in a nice perk for frequent flyers, will be free for all SkyMiles members.
But let's be clear about the scale difference here. This is a bet on potential. Amazon has been testing its service with businesses and is reportedly "months away" from starting commercial service in small regions, with plans to expand as it launches more satellites. Starlink, by contrast, is already a massive, revenue-generating business. Delta is betting that Amazon can catch up in the next few years.
Meanwhile, other airlines are firmly in Musk's camp. United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) has committed to putting Starlink across its entire fleet by the end of 2027. Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) signed on just last month. Alaska and Hawaiian airlines already have it live on their planes. The one major player still on the fence is American Airlines Group Inc (AAL), which is reportedly expected to make a decision within weeks.
Right now, in the race to connect airplanes to the internet from space, Musk is winning by a wide margin. Delta just placed a contrarian bet.
The $1.75 Trillion Question
This all matters way beyond in-flight movies because Starlink isn't just a side project for SpaceX—it's widely seen as the revenue engine that will power its upcoming public offering. That cash flow is especially important now, as reports suggest the xAI unit that was folded into SpaceX is burning through money.
Musk confirmed in December that a 2026 IPO timeline was "accurate," though he's since pushed back on specific rumors, like one claiming Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD) would be shut out of the deal, calling that "false." He's also reportedly planning to reserve a unusually large chunk—up to 30%—of the shares for retail investors.
The market is already trying to price this historic debut. On prediction markets like Polymarket, traders are giving a 52% chance that SpaceX will be valued between $1.5 and $2 trillion after the IPO. There's a 24% chance it lands between $2 and $2.5 trillion, and just a 10% chance it comes in below $1.5 trillion. The chance of Musk himself becoming a trillionaire this year is pegged at 70%, heavily dependent on this IPO's success.
So, does Delta picking Bezos over Musk for its Wi-Fi put a dent in that $1.75 trillion thesis? Not really. One airline deal, for service that won't even start until 2028, isn't going to move the needle on its own. Starlink's lead is enormous.
But it does set up an interesting narrative. If American Airlines, in its pending decision, also chooses Amazon's Project Kuiper, then suddenly you have two of the "big four" U.S. carriers opting for the challenger. That could make prediction market traders and IPO investors start to seriously rethink the durability of Starlink's competitive moat just as SpaceX prepares for the biggest debut in Wall Street history.
For now, Delta investors seem focused on more immediate concerns. The airline reports its first-quarter earnings on April 8, with analysts estimating earnings of 65 cents per share on $15.08 billion in revenue. It's worth noting Delta has beaten earnings per share estimates for five consecutive quarters running.
