So, stocks decided to have a good day. It happens sometimes, even in a rough month. U.S. equities staged their strongest rally in weeks on Tuesday, and the catalyst, oddly enough, seemed to be geopolitics. A Wall Street Journal report indicated President Donald Trump told aides he was willing to end military hostilities with Iran, even if the vital Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
This followed a more conciliatory message from Monday, where Trump said the U.S. was in "serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime" to end military operations—though he paired that with a threat to "obliterate" Iran's energy infrastructure if a deal wasn't reached. Classic Trump: an olive branch in one hand, a very large stick in the other. Markets, for the moment, chose to focus on the branch.
The rally was broad-based. The S&P 500 (SPY) advanced 112 points, or 1.8%, to 6,456. Now, here's the context: that still leaves the index down 6.2% for the month and roughly 8% below its January all-time high near 7,000. So, a good day, but not a game-changer. The S&P 500 is still on track to notch its worst monthly performance since September 2022.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) gained 610 points (1.4%), and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rose 448 points, or 2%, as tech stocks led the recovery after underperforming earlier in the week. The Russell 2000 (IWM) added 1.8%.
Meanwhile, in the commodity pits, the story was about holding patterns and rebounds. WTI crude oil—as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (USO)—held above $104 per barrel, gaining 1.8% to $104.72. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate, and bettors on prediction market Polymarket see only an 18% chance that traffic there returns to normal by the end of April.
Gold rebounded 2.3% to $4,618 an ounce, and silver surged 5.6% to $73.94. But don't get too excited: gold is still down over 13% for March, on pace for its worst month since September 2008. Silver is down 17% month-to-date. It's a rebound from a very deep hole.
On the economic front, the data was a mixed bag. February JOLTS job openings fell to 6.882 million, slightly missing estimates, with job quits sinking to their lowest level since August 2020. On the brighter side, The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for March came in at 91.8, topping forecasts. So, the jobs market might be cooling a touch, but consumers are feeling a bit better. Go figure.
Bond traders were in a better mood too. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.33%, extending its retreat from an eight-month high. This provided some relief for rate-sensitive stocks, especially in tech. This came a day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank tends to look through supply shocks and that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. The message: don't expect a panic pivot from the Fed just because oil prices are high.
