Here's a funny thing about bear markets: they usually show up in a hurry. The current 9.4% slide in the S&P 500? It's taking the scenic route. According to one strategist, this lack of speed might be the most telling sign that what we're seeing isn't a classic bear market collapse, but something else entirely—a "growth scare" that's playing out in slow motion.

The Missing Signature: Where's the Panic?

Think about the last time you dropped your phone. It probably happened fast. Market downturns are often like that. Data from Carson Investment Research shows that since 1950, when the S&P 500 starts to tumble, it typically hits a 5% decline in a blistering average of just 14.5 trading days. It's a quick, sharp shock.

This time? Not so much.

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, points out that the "current mild pullback" that began on Jan. 27 took a leisurely 35 trading days to reach that same 5% milestone. "That would by far be the most ever should this turn into a bear market," Detrick noted. In other words, the market is falling asleep on the way down. For long-term investors, this sluggish pace might actually be a good sign—it suggests a lack of the panic-fueled, wholesale selling that characterizes real bear market beginnings.

The 'End Stage' Is in Sight, Says Morgan Stanley

While the descent is slow, some on Wall Street think we're nearing the bottom. Michael Wilson and his team at Morgan Stanley put out a note saying the correction is "getting closer to its ending stages."

This is interesting because the news backdrop isn't exactly calm. There's a war involving Iran and the vital Strait of Hormuz is closed, pushing oil prices higher. Yet, Wilson argues that a lot of this scary geopolitical stuff is already reflected in stock prices. The market, he suggests, is more worried about growth risks than most people think.

How can he tell? Look under the hood. While the S&P 500 index itself has been relatively resilient, over half of the stocks in the broader Russell 3000 are already down 20% from their highs. Morgan Stanley calls this a "stealth bear market"—a lot of pain has already been inflicted across the market, even if the headline index numbers haven't fully shown it yet.

Two Big Hurdles: War and the 10-Year Yield

Okay, so maybe the floor is close. But getting back up won't be a walk in the park. There are two giant speed bumps in the way.

First, there's the war. Brent crude oil was last seen at $107.35 a barrel. Conflict in the Middle East tends to do that. Higher energy prices act as a tax on everything, complicating the economic picture.

Second, and perhaps more importantly for stock valuations, there are interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.33%, knocking on the door of 4.5%. Morgan Stanley warns that "interest-rate hikes still pose a threat," and right now, stocks are more sensitive to moves in rates than they have been in years. When borrowing costs go up, the present value of future company earnings goes down. It's simple math, but it hits hard.

The good news? Company profits are still growing. This positive earnings growth is acting as a cushion. Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that the "cumulative probability" of markets getting back to normal and trade resuming is actually higher than the odds of us plunging into a full-blown recession.

By the Numbers: How Far Have We Fallen?

Let's look at the scoreboard. As of Monday's close, the S&P 500 was down 9.41% from its record high of 7,002.38 points. For the year, it's down 7.51%, but it's still up a respectable 13.04% over the past 12 months.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has felt more heat. It's down 13.43% from its peak and 10.51% year-to-date, though it remains up over 20% for the year.

And in early trading Tuesday, there were flickers of green. The ETFs that track these major indices—the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ)—were both moving higher in premarket action. The SPY was up 0.93% and the QQQ advanced 0.88%. It's not a rally, but it's a sign that not everyone is hitting the sell button.

So, what do we have? A market decline that's oddly slow, analysts who think the worst might be almost over, and two very real problems—war and high rates—blocking the path to recovery. It's not a typical bear market story. It's messier, slower, and perhaps, for investors with patience, a bit less frightening.