Here's a funny thing about bear markets: they usually show up in a hurry. The current 9.4% slide in the S&P 500? It's taking the scenic route. According to one strategist, this lack of speed might be the most telling sign that what we're seeing isn't a classic bear market collapse, but something else entirely—a "growth scare" that's playing out in slow motion.
The Missing Signature: Where's the Panic?
Think about the last time you dropped your phone. It probably happened fast. Market downturns are often like that. Data from Carson Investment Research shows that since 1950, when the S&P 500 starts to tumble, it typically hits a 5% decline in a blistering average of just 14.5 trading days. It's a quick, sharp shock.
This time? Not so much.
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, points out that the "current mild pullback" that began on Jan. 27 took a leisurely 35 trading days to reach that same 5% milestone. "That would by far be the most ever should this turn into a bear market," Detrick noted. In other words, the market is falling asleep on the way down. For long-term investors, this sluggish pace might actually be a good sign—it suggests a lack of the panic-fueled, wholesale selling that characterizes real bear market beginnings.
The 'End Stage' Is in Sight, Says Morgan Stanley
While the descent is slow, some on Wall Street think we're nearing the bottom. Michael Wilson and his team at Morgan Stanley put out a note saying the correction is "getting closer to its ending stages."
This is interesting because the news backdrop isn't exactly calm. There's a war involving Iran and the vital Strait of Hormuz is closed, pushing oil prices higher. Yet, Wilson argues that a lot of this scary geopolitical stuff is already reflected in stock prices. The market, he suggests, is more worried about growth risks than most people think.
How can he tell? Look under the hood. While the S&P 500 index itself has been relatively resilient, over half of the stocks in the broader Russell 3000 are already down 20% from their highs. Morgan Stanley calls this a "stealth bear market"—a lot of pain has already been inflicted across the market, even if the headline index numbers haven't fully shown it yet.
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