Here's a classic corporate move: when you run big, power-hungry factories, you don't want to be at the mercy of the spot electricity market. You want a deal. TotalEnergies SE (TTE) just got a big one.
The French energy giant and the state-owned EDF Group signed a 12-year Nuclear Production Allocation Contract on Friday. It kicks in on January 1, 2028, and it's all about securing low-carbon electricity for TotalEnergies' industrial operations back home in France. Think of it as a very long-term reservation for nuclear power.
Under the deal, EDF will allocate enough nuclear output to cover about 60% of the electricity needs for TotalEnergies' refining and chemicals sites. That works out to roughly 400 megawatts. For TotalEnergies, it means locking in competitively priced, low-carbon energy for over a decade. For EDF, it gets to share some of the production-related risks that come with running nuclear plants. EDF will, of course, continue to operate its nuclear assets.
Technical Analysis
So, what's the market think of all this? Let's look at the stock. TotalEnergies is trading 9.2% above its 20-day simple moving average and a hefty 28.5% above its 100-day average. That keeps the short-term and intermediate-term uptrend clearly intact. Shares are up nearly 39% over the past year and are positioned closer to their 52-week highs than lows. In fact, the price is now above the prior 52-week high set back on March 19.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 76.79. That puts the stock in overbought territory, which suggests momentum is strong but increasingly stretched. The MACD is also constructive at 3.6345 versus a 3.3079 signal line, keeping the bullish trend signal in place even as the stock runs hot.
The combination of an overbought RSI (above 70) and a bullish MACD suggests mixed momentum. The trend strength remains intact, but the risk of a pullback rises if buyers start to get tired.
- Key Resistance: $92.00
- Key Support: $76.50
Earnings & Analyst Outlook
Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the confirmed earnings report on April 29, 2026.
- EPS Estimate: $1.92 (Up from $1.83 year-over-year)
- Revenue Estimate: $44.68 Billion (Down from $52.25 Billion year-over-year)
- Valuation: P/E of 15.5x (Suggests fair valuation relative to peers)
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Hold Rating with an average price target of $70.72. Recent analyst moves include:
- Piper Sandler: Neutral (Raises Target to $92.00) (March 12)
- JP Morgan: Upgraded to Overweight (March 2)
- Freedom Broker: Downgraded to Sell (Maintains Target at $73.00) (February 13)
