So, the Conservative Political Action Conference held a straw poll for the 2028 presidential race. It's the political equivalent of checking the temperature in a very specific room—in this case, a room in Grapevine, Texas, filled with over 1,600 conservative activists. And the thermometer reading is pretty clear: Vice President JD Vance is very, very warm.

Vance topped the poll with 53% of the vote. That's not just winning; that's lapping the field. The person who managed to get within shouting distance was Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who surged to second place with 35%. After that, the numbers drop off a cliff. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. were tied for a distant third with just 2% each. Senators Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, along with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Texas Governor Greg Abbott, each scraped together just 1%.

It's one thing to see the numbers. It's another to hear why. Paul Empson, a 58-year-old accountant from Fort Worth, told Reuters he backed Vance because of the Vice President's alignment with the MAGA movement and his public faith in Christianity. "I wasn't real sure about him at first, you know, like he's inexperienced, but I've seen everything he's done," Empson said. "He's a real, genuine person, and he's also willing to proclaim his faith in Jesus Christ in public."

Meanwhile, Rubio's rise seems to be built on a reputation for steady, full-throated conservatism. James Schaare, a 61-year-old political activist from Texas, said Rubio impressed him. "Over the last couple of years, everything he says and does is 100% conservative," said Schaare. Another attendee, 79-year-old Carol Kurpiel, praised Rubio's energy and direct style, adding, "He's strong. He's to the point. He works like Trump: go, go, go, go." The chatter at the event even included speculation that a Vance-Rubio ticket could be a powerful draw for the conservative base.

This is, of course, just a straw poll. It's informal, unscientific, and reflects the views of a specific slice of the Republican electorate. But it's a data point. And if you're looking for more data points on the 2028 race, you might glance at the prediction markets, an industry that former President Donald Trump recently praised, saying they "predicted me pretty right… by a landslide" and outperformed polls. The industry has ballooned, reportedly passing $17 billion in monthly volume.

A 2025 study from Vanderbilt University confirmed that one platform, Polymarket, did indeed outperform traditional polls in swing states during the 2024 election. The industry has its legal scrutineers, but it also has supporters in high places. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, a Trump appointee, has filed a legal brief supporting federal jurisdiction over these markets, criticizing state-level enforcement as a "power grab."

And what are those markets saying about 2028? They offer an early, money-backed glimpse. On one major contract asking "Next U.S. Presidential Election Winner?"—which has seen over $8.5 million wagered—Vance is also the frontrunner, holding a 28% probability. He's followed by Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom at 20%, with Rubio currently sitting at 10%. So, while CPAC activists and anonymous bettors are very different crowds, they seem to be looking at a similar top tier taking shape for the GOP, years ahead of the actual starting gun.