Here's a sobering thought for anyone who buys anything made of plastic, drives a car, or lives in a building: the supply chain mess from the Iran war could take the better part of a year to sort out. That's the warning from Dow Inc. (DOW) chairman and CEO Jim Fitterling.

Speaking at an energy conference in Houston, Fitterling laid out a timeline that's grimly familiar. He compared the current disruption to the COVID-era snarls and said, "The die is being cast for the rest of the year." The culprit? The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which he says is effectively blocking nearly 20% of the world's petrochemical capacity.

The ripple effects are expected to hit everything from construction materials and consumer goods to the automotive and aerospace industries. And the fix won't be quick. Fitterling estimates a 250- to 275-day recovery window once the strait reopens, cautioning it would not be an immediate rebound.

Think of it like a traffic jam after a major accident. Normally, about 150 vessels flow through the strait daily. Fitterling estimates that when it eventually reopens, only about 15 escorted ships will initially get through each day. The queue will be orderly but slow: oil and gas tankers first, then fertilizer, with petrochemicals likely bringing up the rear.

The Growing Divide Between East and West

This isn't just a global problem; it's one that splits the world in two. Fitterling noted that U.S. petrochemical plants run largely on ethane, a natural gas derivative that's unaffected by the war. Asian and European plants, however, depend on naphtha, and nearly half of Asia's supply of that flows through the strait.

The result is a massive pricing gap. The typical spread between U.S. and Asian petrochemical prices is under $500 per metric ton. It has already surged above $1,200. Fitterling said this supply shock will exacerbate so-called K-shaped economic trends, creating "greater haves and have-nots between the Western and Eastern hemispheres."

Here's the ironic twist: despite all this turmoil, Dow's stock has climbed nearly 70% year to date. But Fitterling said he is not celebrating. He's worried about the bigger picture. The war's inflationary impact, he warned, could push interest rates higher, which would dampen housing demand and broader economic growth.

"The volatility is off the charts right now," he said. Four weeks into the conflict, with tensions still escalating and energy prices fueling inflation fears, that's one statement everyone can agree on.