So here's what happens when geopolitics meets your gas tank: prices go up. Senator Elizabeth Warren thinks she knows who to blame, and she's not being subtle about it.

The Massachusetts Democrat took to social media this week with a simple message: "We must end Trump's war." Her complaint isn't just about foreign policy—it's about what that policy is doing to Americans' wallets. According to Warren, gas prices have spiked 30%, fertilizer is up 30-40%, and jet fuel costs have jumped a whopping 60% since tensions escalated with Iran.

"Trump's war is creating economic chaos and increasing prices," she posted, directly linking the administration's actions to the surge in essential goods.

Now, let's look at the numbers, because in finance, the numbers are what matter. The American Automobile Association data from Thursday tells a pretty clear story: the national average for a gallon of gasoline went from $2.98 to $3.98 in just one month. That's about a 33% increase, which lines up pretty neatly with Warren's 30% claim.

But it's not just your car that's getting more expensive to fuel. The aviation industry is feeling the heat too. Jet fuel currently costs over $4.24 per gallon, according to Airlines For America. That's up approximately 69% from $2.50 per gallon back on February 27—before that joint U.S.-Israeli operation that resulted in the death of Iran's former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

When jet fuel gets this expensive, airlines start getting nervous. United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby has already warned that airfares could rise amid what he called a "perfect storm" of the partial government shutdown and these surging fuel costs. Translation: if you're planning to fly somewhere, you might want to book soon.

Meanwhile, the situation on the ground keeps evolving. Israel claims it killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy commander Alireza Tangsiri in a missile strike. The Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Jassim Mohammed Al-Budaiwi, is stressing the need for diplomatic solutions. And President Trump has claimed that former Secretary of State Antony Blinken endorsed his attacks on Iran—a claim Blinken has refuted.

What's interesting here isn't just the political back-and-forth, but how quickly market realities respond to geopolitical tensions. Warren's argument is essentially that foreign policy isn't some abstract concept—it shows up in your monthly budget, at the pump, and eventually in your travel plans. Whether you agree with her assessment of causality or not, the price increases are real, and they're happening now.

The bigger question for investors and consumers alike: how long does this last, and what's the breaking point where either prices stabilize or economic activity starts to meaningfully slow down? When United Airlines' CEO is talking about fare increases, that's usually a sign that the cost pressures are becoming serious enough to pass along to customers.

For now, Warren's message is clear: she sees a direct line from decisions made in Washington to numbers on gas station signs across the country. And she's betting that voters will see that connection too.