Here's a familiar story in tech: component prices go up, so the gadgets that use them get more expensive, and then people buy fewer of them. According to the latest forecast from Counterpoint Research, that's exactly what's about to happen to the global PC market in 2026. Shipments are expected to drop 5% year-over-year to 262 million units, and the main culprit is the rising cost of memory.

Think of it as a simple squeeze. PC makers, the OEMs, are getting hit with higher bills for DRAM and NAND flash. They have two basic choices: eat the cost and watch their profit margins shrink, or pass it on to you, the buyer. As you might guess, they're choosing the latter, which is putting a damper on demand. It's a classic price elasticity problem playing out on a global scale.

But before you write off the entire PC industry, there's some good news. Compared to other corners of the consumer electronics world—looking at you, smartphones and tablets—the PC market is actually holding up pretty well. Why? Because a lot of us are still sitting on old machines. A strong replacement cycle is providing a floor under demand, with many devices still eligible for upgrades to Windows 11. Microsoft continues to push those operating system updates, which is a reliable engine for driving hardware refreshes. When your computer tells you it's no longer supported, you tend to listen.

Not All PC Makers Are in the Same Boat

When the tide goes out, you see who's been swimming without trunks. The forecast suggests performance will vary quite a bit across the major vendors. Heavyweights like Lenovo Group Ltd. (LNVGY), HP Inc. (HPQ), and Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) are all looking at mid-single-digit shipment declines. Dell might have the softest landing of the three, thanks to its heavier focus on commercial and premium segments. Businesses and buyers shopping for high-end machines are generally less sensitive to a price hike than someone just looking for a basic laptop to browse the web.

Then there's Apple (AAPL). The forecast expects Apple to outperform the broader market slump. It has a new, more affordable $599 MacBook Neo aimed at budget and education buyers, and the expected launch of an OLED-based laptop later in 2026 could give its premium lineup a boost. On the other end of the spectrum, companies like ASUSTeK Computer and Acer, along with smaller brands, might face steeper declines. These players often compete more aggressively in the low-end segment, where buyers will immediately balk at any price increase.

The Silver Linings: Upgrades and AI

So, is it all doom and gloom? Not quite. Analysts point to a couple of factors that are acting as shock absorbers. Minsoo Kang, a Senior Analyst at Counterpoint, laid out the dilemma clearly: "The continuous surge in memory prices is forcing PC OEMs into a difficult choice – absorb margin compression or pass the costs on to consumers through price hikes. As major players are already implementing or planning price increases, an immediate softening of consumer demand is highly anticipated."

He notes that while higher prices might lift the average selling price of a PC, the drop in volume will likely mean overall revenue for the industry takes a hit. But here's the countervailing force: about 40% of devices out there are still running Windows 10 or older. That's a huge pool of potential upgraders, and that demand will help put a limit on how far shipments can fall.

David Naranjo, an Associate Director, added more color on the timeline. "While supply-side pressures will remain for 2026 due to DRAM and NAND shortages and price increases, the Windows 10/11 refresh cycle may continue for H1 2026 to support some shipments, but certainly not enough to offset the declines," he said.

Looking ahead to 2027, he expects the memory shortage and pricing pressure to start easing toward the end of 2026. And then there's the new kid on the block: AI PCs. "In addition, AI PCs are expected to continue to gain traction, providing a tailwind for flat or modest YoY growth," Naranjo said. So, the story for 2026 is one of a market under cost pressure, but propped up by a natural upgrade cycle and the beginning of a new, AI-powered chapter. It's a dip, not a collapse.