Shares of Pony AI Inc. (PONY) were ticking higher in premarket trading Thursday. The autonomous driving company had some news to share, and it's the kind of news that makes you think the future is arriving a bit faster than expected.
First, there's a new strategic partnership. Pony AI is teaming up with Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) and a company called Verne to do something pretty straightforward: launch Europe's first commercial robotaxi service. They're starting in Zagreb, Croatia, where on-road testing is already happening. The plan is to combine Pony AI's self-driving tech, Uber's massive ride-hailing app, and Verne's fleet operations. Verne will own and run the cars, Uber will put them in its app, and Pony AI will make them drive themselves. They're testing with Pony AI's latest Gen-7 system on Arcfox Alpha T5 vehicles, getting ready to start charging fares. The goal is to start in Zagreb and then expand to other European cities, eventually growing the fleet to thousands of vehicles. Uber is even planning to invest in Verne to help fuel that growth.
Second, and perhaps more importantly for investors right now, Pony AI laid out some seriously aggressive expansion plans for its core robotaxi business. The company says it expects to deploy more than 3,000 robotaxis across over 20 cities globally in 2026. Nearly half of those vehicles are slated for overseas markets, signaling a major push outside its home turf in China. This isn't just a dream on a PowerPoint slide; the company says commercialization is accelerating.
The numbers from the last quarter back up the ambition. Pony AI reported that its robotaxi revenue skyrocketed 160% year over year. Even more impressive, the revenue from actually charging fares for rides surged more than 500%. What's driving this? A rapidly expanding fleet and more people using the service. The company said it has reached unit economics breakeven—meaning the revenue from a ride covers the cost of providing it—in several major Chinese cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, where demand is growing fast.
A year ago, Pony AI's fleet was under 300 vehicles. By the end of the last quarter, it had ballooned to 1,446. Total users in China are now approaching one million. That's the kind of growth that gets attention.
The financials, however, present a more mixed picture—the classic story of a high-growth company. For the fourth quarter, Pony AI reported an adjusted loss of 12 cents per share. That's actually better than the loss of 23 cents per share from a year ago, but it was wider than the 22-cent loss analysts were expecting. Revenue came in at $29.1 million, which beat expectations of $23.9 million. But it also represented an 18% decline from the $35.5 million reported in the same period last year. So, the core robotaxi business is booming, but the overall revenue picture is a bit softer, likely due to other parts of the company.
Turning to the stock itself, the technical picture looks a bit weary. The stock is currently trading 9.8% below its 20-day simple moving average and 17.8% below its 100-day simple moving average, which suggests bearish momentum in the near to medium term. Over the past 12 months, shares are up a modest 3.26% and are positioned closer to their 52-week lows than their highs.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 38.28, which is considered neutral territory—not oversold, not overbought. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows a value of -0.8150, which is below its signal line of -0.7680, indicating bearish pressure. So you have neutral momentum from one common indicator and bearish signals from another. Traders often watch key levels in such situations: key resistance is seen at $12.50, while key support sits at $10.50.
Looking ahead, the company's next scheduled financial update is estimated for May 19, 2026. The current consensus estimate is for a loss of 11 cents per share, which would be a slight widening from an estimated loss of 10 cents previously. Revenue, however, is expected to jump to $20.88 million, up significantly from an estimate of $13.98 million.
Despite the stock's sluggish technical performance, Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish. The stock carries a consensus "Buy" rating with an average price target of $22.36. Recent analyst actions include Barclays initiating coverage with an Equal-Weight rating and a $15 target in mid-December, Macquarie initiating with an Outperform rating and a $29 target around the same time, and Citigroup maintaining a Buy rating while lowering its price target to $24.50 in early November.
For ETF investors, Pony AI is a notable holding in a couple of thematic funds. It has a 4.36% weight in the Roundhill Robotaxi, Autonomous Vehicles & Technology ETF (CABZ) and a 2.34% weight in the SPDR S&P Kensho Smart Mobility ETF (HAIL). This is significant because substantial inflows or outflows for these ETFs can trigger automatic buying or selling of PONY shares to maintain the fund's target weights.
In Thursday's premarket session, Pony AI shares were up 2.28%, trading at $11.65.
