So much for a quiet Thursday. U.S. stock futures decided to take a step back, with all the major indices pointing lower in premarket trading. It seems the market's Wednesday optimism ran into a bit of a reality check overnight, and the reason might sound familiar: geopolitics.
The mood shifted after some pointed comments from the White House. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a briefing that if Iran doesn't accept the current situation, "President Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before… he is prepared to unleash hell." That's not exactly the kind of language that makes investors feel warm and fuzzy about global stability.
This tough talk came as President Donald Trump himself suggested Iran was eager to make a deal to end the recent fighting—a claim that directly contradicted Iran's foreign minister, who said Tehran was reviewing a proposal but had no plans to negotiate. So, we have conflicting narratives and heightened rhetoric. Markets tend to hate that combination.
Against this backdrop, bond yields held steady, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.37% and the two-year at 3.94%. Traders, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, are almost certain (93.8% chance) that the Fed will stand pat on rates at its upcoming April meeting. The focus is squarely elsewhere for now.
Here’s how the major index futures were shaping up:
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | -0.47% |
| S&P 500 | -0.55% |
| Nasdaq 100 | -0.65% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.92% |
The popular ETFs tracking the broader market followed suit. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.58% at $652.98, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, declined 0.67% to $583.91.
Stocks on the Move: Deals, Drops, and Driverless Cars
While the macro picture set a cautious tone, there was plenty of individual stock action driven by company-specific news.
Olaplex Holdings
In a standout move, Olaplex Holdings Inc. (OLPX) skyrocketed 48.12% in premarket trading. The reason? The haircare company announced it's being acquired by German consumer goods giant Henkel AG & Co. KGaA for $2.06 per share in cash. That deal values Olaplex at approximately $1.4 billion. It's a classic "take-private" story giving shareholders a hefty premium. Market data indicates OLPX had been maintaining a weak price trend across timeframes, but today, none of that mattered.
FiscalNote Holdings
On the other end of the spectrum, FiscalNote Holdings Inc. (NOTE) shares fell 3.94%. The company, which provides policy and market intelligence, received a notification from the New York Stock Exchange. It's no longer in compliance with the NYSE's continued listing standard, which requires an average closing share price of at least $1.00 over 30 trading days. It's a procedural headache that often pressures the stock further. Market data shows NOTE has also been maintaining a weak trend.
Worthington Steel
Worthington Steel Inc. (WS) took a significant hit, plunging 14.04% after reporting third-quarter financial results that fell short of expectations. When companies miss on earnings, the market reaction is usually swift and unforgiving. Market data indicated WS had a weak price trend but a solid value score—apparently, that wasn't enough to cushion the blow from disappointing numbers.
MillerKnoll
The furniture maker MillerKnoll Inc. (MLKN) fared even worse, slumping 19.16%. The company delivered a double whammy: worse-than-expected Q3 results and weak guidance for the fourth quarter. That's the kind of one-two punch that sends investors heading for the exits. Market data showed MLKN with a weak trend and a poor growth score.
Pony AI
Amid the sea of red, there was a green shoot. Pony AI Inc. ADR (PONY) was up 2.11%. The autonomous vehicle technology firm announced a partnership with Verne and Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) to launch what's being called Europe's first commercial robotaxi service. It's a tangible step forward for the industry and a positive catalyst for Pony AI, even though broader market data suggests the stock has maintained a weak price trend.
Looking Back: Wednesday's Session
To understand the pullback, it helps to remember where we came from. On Wednesday, the market actually closed higher, led by consumer discretionary, materials, and health care stocks. Energy and real estate were the laggards.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Dow Jones | 0.66% | 46,429.49 |
| S&P 500 | 0.54% | 6,591.90 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 0.77% | 21,929.83 |
| Russell 2000 | 1.23% | 2,536.38 |
The Analyst View: BlackRock Sounds a Warning
The geopolitical noise isn't just background chatter for traders; it's shaping major institutional views. In its March 2026 commentary, asset management giant BlackRock downgraded U.S. stocks to neutral. Their reasoning? The escalating Middle East conflict is creating a significant "macro shock."
This instability has triggered what BlackRock calls a "sharp repricing in energy markets," with expectations of a prolonged supply disruption that could shave about 0.75% off global growth. The firm sees a "market disconnect," arguing that current equity prices near record highs don't yet reflect the "macro damage that energy pricing implies." They warn that higher energy costs and uncertainty will eventually weigh on demand.
For the Fed, this "energy shock has further weakened the case" for cutting rates this year. In fact, market expectations have swung from anticipating three cuts to now "veering toward a hike." BlackRock believes the window for Fed intervention is "closing fast" amid persistent inflation and high debt, leading them to "dial down tactical risk" until there's clear evidence of de-escalation.
What's on Tap for Thursday
Investors will have a few data points to digest today:
- Jobless Claims: Initial claims for the week ending March 21 are due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Fed Speakers: A parade of Federal Reserve officials is scheduled to speak in the evening, including Governor Lisa Cook (4:00 p.m. ET), Governor Stephen Miran (6:30 p.m.), Vice Chair Philip Jefferson (7:00 p.m.), and Governor Michael Barr (7:10 p.m.). Their comments on the economy and policy will be closely parsed, especially given the new geopolitical context.
Around the Markets: Commodities, Crypto, and Global Equities
The risk-off sentiment was evident beyond stocks. Crude oil futures, often a barometer for Middle East tensions, were down 3.55% to around $93.53 a barrel in early New York trading. Gold, typically a safe haven, also fell 1.72% to about $4,428.84 an ounce (its record high is $5,595.46). The U.S. Dollar Index was slightly higher.
In crypto, Bitcoin was a rare positive, trading 0.50% higher at $71,238.02.
Globally, the mood was cautious. Asian markets closed mostly lower, with only India's Nifty 50 index managing gains. European markets were also trading lower in early sessions. It seems the geopolitical jitters emanating from Washington are being felt on trading floors around the world.
