So, here's a thing that happens in markets: sometimes the mere possibility of a thing ending can be just as powerful as the thing actually ending. Right now, that thing is a war, and the possibility comes in the form of a 15-point peace plan.
President Donald Trump has reportedly sent Iran a framework covering ballistic missiles, nuclear programs, and those all-important maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Now, Tehran has reportedly said it "does not accept a ceasefire," according to a CNBC report. But markets, being the forward-looking beasts they are, are already starting to chew on what renewed diplomacy could mean. You could see it Wednesday morning with some of the most war-battered stocks staging a sharp premarket rebound.
Prediction markets are moving, too. Over on Polymarket, the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 30 now sits at 48%. That's basically a coin flip. A week ago, that would have seemed wildly optimistic. For ten specific stocks in the Russell 1000 that have been absolutely hammered—down between 17% and 33% since the fighting began—that coin flip is everything. It's the difference between more pain and a potential violent snapback rally.
What The 15-Point Plan Actually Signals
A bunch of diplomatic threads came together on Tuesday to nudge the market's calculus toward a negotiated end. Beyond the 15-point framework itself, there's talk of U.S. and regional mediators holding high-level peace talks as soon as Thursday, though Iran hasn't confirmed that.
The tone from the White House has shifted. President Trump said at a ceremony that "this war has been won" and "I think we're going to end it." That's the kind of language markets listen to.
Of course, the counterweights are very real. Reports say Iran and Israel continued exchanging strikes through Tuesday. The U.S. is planning to deploy about 3,000 additional airborne troops. Several Gulf states are reportedly considering joining operations against Iran. This isn't over until it's over.
The economic shock is still rippling through. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are near a standstill, down 95% versus normal on a four-day moving average. The hit to Persian Gulf oil exports is a staggering 15.5 million barrels per day. Some of that is being offset by rerouting about 3.8 million barrels per day through pipelines and other ports, but it's a massive disruption.
And yet, the oil market itself is starting to... relax? Brent and WTI held below $100 and $90 a barrel, respectively, after Monday's crude selloff. It's a market that is, cautiously, beginning to price in the possibility of a resolution. That's the first step for everything else.
The 10 Most War-Battered Russell 1000 Stocks
Let's talk about the stocks with the most skin in this game—the ones with the most to recover. They've been caught in one of three classic war-driven compression mechanisms.
First, you have the gold and metals miners, who got a double squeeze. Energy costs for mining operations spiked, just as the price of their output—gold—tanked roughly 17%. It's a brutal combo. AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) leads the losers with a -32.84% decline month-to-date. Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) is down 24.15%, and Newmont Corporation (NEM) is down 23.83%. They all followed the same painful script.
The broader industrial metals complex got hit as forecasts for global demand deteriorated amid the geopolitical shock. Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) is down 26.76%, and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has shed 17.04%.
Then you have the airlines, hit on two fronts: skyrocketing jet fuel costs and the cost and complexity of rerouting flights away from dangerous Gulf airspace. Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is down 25.43%, Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is down 19.14%, and American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is down 18.06%.
Finally, the leisure and cruise stocks round out the list, pricing in a sustained chilling effect on discretionary travel spending as consumer uncertainty reigns. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) has fallen 20.69% and Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is down 19.27%.
