So the S&P 500 had a rough Friday. The index, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), fell below the 6,500 level for the first time since September 8, 2025. It's down more than 5% from its peak, and investors are digesting a lot: the ongoing conflict involving Iran, rising oil prices, and the unsettling potential for a broader military escalation. It was a bad day, but the real story might be how it was bad.
Market strategist Jay Woods has been watching this unfold, and he's got a take that's part technical analysis, part history lesson, and part countdown clock. He points out that the sell-off wasn't a sudden crash; it was, in his words, "rather methodical as the index has dropped lower from one support level to the next." The worry, he says in a newsletter, is that these "cracks in the market foundation may lead to an even bigger drawdown."
The big crack on Friday? The S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average. It also took out the lows from October and November. This isn't just a line on a chart for traders; it's a major psychological and technical support level. "We've broken down," Woods said in a CNBC interview. "The bears are winning the race."
Okay, so the bears are in charge. What happens next? Woods thinks the answer might be found in a 10-day window.
He notes that Friday's break snapped a 214-day streak where the S&P 500 traded above its 200-day moving average. When that happens after such a long run, history offers a clue. "Statistics show that 71% of the time when the market has broken below the 200-day moving average after 200+ days above it, it recaptures the average within 10 days," Woods explains. This stat is based on a sample of 28 previous occurrences, where the largest drawdown during those recovery attempts was about 3%.
So, Woods has effectively started a 10-day clock. We'll see if the market can scramble back above that key line. He draws a parallel to last year's "Liberation Day" sell-off, which was triggered by tariff headlines. Back then, the S&P 500 also fell below its 200-day average and took exactly 10 days to climb back above it.
The current sell-off has its own headlines—the war and options expiration and fund rebalancing all played a role on Friday. "We have seen this movie before," Woods says, "but each time the market cracks, it is under a very different headline."
His bottom line? This could be a "really passionate" sell-off, or it could see a quick rebound. Despite the obvious risks flashing on news screens, Woods suggests a rally is likely in the short term and that this environment "could be a time to put money to work in the stock market." In other words, the bears might be winning the race right now, but don't count the bulls out just yet. The next ten days will be telling.
