So, here's the thing about Apple: they're not exactly known for rushing into new form factors. They let everyone else try the weird stuff first, then swoop in with a polished version that makes you wonder why you ever bothered with the clunky prototypes. According to a new report from BofA Securities, that playbook might be getting dusted off for the foldable phone market.
Analyst Wamsi Mohan is keeping his Buy rating on Apple Inc. (AAPL), though he did trim his price target a bit from $325 to $320. The core of his optimism? Upcoming product shifts, including what could be Apple's biggest design change in years.
The Foldable Gambit
Mohan expects Apple to launch its first foldable iPhone in 2026. Think of it as the company's answer to the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip and Fold, but with that classic Apple sheen. The device is tipped to have a 7.7–7.8-inch inner display (that's the big screen you see when you unfold it) and a profile so slim it'll be under 10mm thick when closed. In a curious twist, the report suggests it might use Touch ID—the fingerprint sensor—instead of Face ID for authentication.
Why would anyone care? Well, Mohan believes the initial demand could be massive: 10 to 20 million units. That's significantly higher than what current foldables are selling, and it would be fueled by two groups: premium iPhone users who've been waiting for a bigger screen without carrying an iPad Mini, and the ever-important Chinese market.
Alongside the foldable launch, Mohan sees other catalysts on the horizon, including more AI processing happening directly on devices ("AI at the edge") and Apple's continued habit of returning capital to shareholders.
Reshuffling the Launch Deck
Here's where it gets interesting for the supply chain nerds. Launching a complex new product like a foldable phone isn't just about design; it's about building it. Mohan expects Apple to change its entire launch cadence to make this smoother.
The plan, as he sees it, would be to introduce the foldable and the high-end Pro iPhone models in their traditional September slot in 2026. But then, the more mainstream models—the base iPhone, the iPhone Air, and the rumored cheaper "e" model—would get pushed to early 2027.
This staggered approach isn't just about building hype. It's a practical move. By spacing out the launches, Apple could avoid the typical crunch where every factory in its global supply chain is trying to build every new model at once. It should, in theory, lead to smoother production cycles and better utilization of manufacturing capacity. Mohan adjusted his financial estimates to account for this timing shift and the expected higher price tag on the foldable, which is why his price target got that slight haircut.
How's the Stock Looking?
Let's talk about the stock itself. As of the latest data, Apple shares were trading about 2.8% below their 20-day simple moving average and 5.4% below their 100-day average. That suggests the stock is still working through a shorter-term downtrend, even though it's up a solid 14.47% over the past year and is sitting closer to its 52-week high than its low.
The technical indicators paint a picture of mixed momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34.88, which is in neutral territory but leaning closer to the oversold zone than the overbought one. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in a bearish setup at -4.2160 versus a signal line of -2.8657, hinting that downside pressure hasn't fully cleared yet.
For traders watching the charts, key resistance sits at $280.50, while key support is down at $243.50.
Earnings and What the Street Thinks
The next major event for Apple investors is the earnings report, estimated for April 30. The Street is expecting good things:
- Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimate: $1.92, up from $1.65 a year ago.
- Revenue Estimate: $109 billion, up from $95.36 billion year-over-year.
- Valuation: The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 31.4x, which indicates a premium valuation compared to many of its peers.
The analyst consensus remains firmly in the Buy camp, with an average price target of $304.33. Recent moves include:
- BofA Securities: Buy, lowered target to $320 on March 23.
- Wedbush: Outperform, maintains target of $350 from March 5.
- Rosenblatt: Neutral, raised target to $268 on March 5.
Apple's ETF Footprint
Because Apple is such a giant, its performance doesn't just matter to its own shareholders; it ripples through countless exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Some of the funds with the heaviest Apple exposure include:
The significance here is mechanical: because Apple carries such a heavy weight in these popular funds, any significant inflows or outflows from the ETFs themselves can trigger automatic, programmatic buying or selling of Apple shares in the background.
In Monday's trading, Apple shares were up 1.32%, closing at $251.26.
