So, gold is having a moment. Not a great one, mind you—it's down more than 22% from its January peak, officially in bear market territory. But according to economist Peter Schiff, this isn't a reason to panic. It's a reason to get very, very excited.
Schiff took to social media on Monday to make a bold historical comparison. He pointed out that during the early months of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, gold crashed 32%, which was about 40% of its prior bull-market gain. "The setup looks identical today," he wrote. Gold nearly hit $4,100 on Monday, down 27% from its peak—also roughly 40% of its gain since the $2,000 level. His conclusion? "A 178% surge from that low puts gold at $11,400."
Let's sit with that for a second. $11,400. That's not a typo. It's a prediction that hinges entirely on the idea that we're watching a replay of 2008, where a brutal selloff was followed by a massive, multi-year rally.
From Record Highs to Bear Market Blues
Gold hit an all-time high of $5,589 in January. It has since shed over 22%, last trading at $4,357.29. The recent U.S.-Iran conflict sent oil prices soaring above $112, stoking inflation fears and, somewhat counterintuitively, putting pressure on the metal. Brent crude sits near $107.86, with WTI at $98.81.
Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% on March 18. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that "higher energy prices will push up overall inflation." The 10-year Treasury yield, perhaps reflecting those concerns, jumped to 4.41%.
Schiff's Counterargument: This Logic Makes No Sense
Schiff isn't buying the market's current narrative. In an earlier post on Monday, he pushed back hard. "Selling gold because rising inflation will keep the Fed from cutting interest rates, when rates are already too low, makes no sense," he argued.
His point is classic Schiff: if inflation is a problem, and real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are negative or low, then gold should be a haven, not a casualty. The market, in his view, is getting it backwards.
And he's not entirely alone in seeing value. Despite the "paper" selloff in futures and ETFs, the physical market tells a different story. The People's Bank of China extended its gold buying streak to 16 consecutive months. Major institutions are also sticking with bullish forecasts. JP Morgan (JPM) and Deutsche Bank (DB) hold year-end targets of $6,300 and $6,000, respectively.
Price Action: A Glimmer of Recovery
Gold did manage to pare some of its steepest losses on Monday, climbing back above $4,480. The catalyst? A geopolitical de-escalation, as former President Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian infrastructure.
The popular gold ETFs reflected the day's volatility. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) trades at $401, down 2.99% on Monday. iShares Gold Trust (IAU) sits at $82.28, down 2.86%, and SPDR Gold MiniShares (GLDM) is at $86.44, down 2.95%.
So, what do you do with all this? On one hand, you have a sharp correction, rising yields, and a Fed on hold. On the other, you have a prominent voice screaming "2008!" from the rooftops, continued central bank accumulation, and big bank price targets that imply significant upside from here.
Schiff's call is ultimately a bet on history rhyming in a very specific, very profitable way. It's a reminder that in markets, sometimes the most painful selloffs set the stage for the most powerful rallies. Whether this is one of those times remains to be seen, but it's certainly a story worth watching.
