Here's a classic market puzzle: what happens when the President says there are peace talks, the other side says there absolutely are not, and everyone decides to believe the first guy? On Monday, we got the answer: a big, fat relief rally.
Iran's Foreign Ministry swiftly rejected President Trump's claim of active peace talks, saying there had been "no direct or indirect contact" with the U.S. But markets, in a display of either profound optimism or selective hearing, rallied anyway. They were betting on de-escalation, facts be damned.
Trump had announced a five-day halt to U.S. military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, citing what he described as "very good and productive conversations" toward a broader resolution. He said those discussions would continue throughout the week. Tehran's denial didn't seem to matter. Investors appeared to take Trump at his word, triggering a sharp rebound across risk assets, particularly in the sectors that had been beaten down the most since the conflict escalated.
Oil Crashes, Stocks Soar: The Relief Trade
The most dramatic move was in the oil market. By 9:40 a.m. ET, energy prices were in freefall:
- West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 8.25% to $90.13 a barrel.
- Brent crude fell 8.94% to $102.16—its steepest single-session decline since the war began.
- Gasoline futures fell 7.18%, and natural gas declined 4.70%.
Meanwhile, equities caught a bid. The S&P 500—as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)—gained 1.64%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.81%, and the Nasdaq-100—tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)—added 1.95%.
The rally had clear leaders. Gold miners were the best performers, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) adding 5%. They were followed by the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and the U.S. Global JETS ETF (JETS), both up about 4%.
Even prediction markets got in on the optimism. On Polymarket, the odds of the Strait of Hormuz reopening by April 30 rose to 38% on Monday.
It's worth a quick reality check here. Trump has repeatedly made misleading claims about the war—overstating U.S. success, suggesting negotiations that aren't happening, and downplaying Iran's resistance. For example, despite claims the war is nearing an end, the U.S. has escalated its involvement, deploying more warships and 2,500 Marines. A proposed $200 billion funding request also signals a potentially prolonged and expanding conflict, even if a ground invasion isn't confirmed. The market, for a day at least, chose to look past all that.
The Bounce-Back Brigade: Stocks That Got Clobbered, Then Rallied
The most interesting action was in the stocks that had suffered the most. It was a classic "dead cat bounce" scenario, but with a geopolitical twist. Cruise operators, hammered by Middle East airspace closures and soaring fuel costs, led the S&P 500 higher early Monday.
Prior to Monday, shares of Norwegian Cruise and Carnival had fallen by 23% since the start of the month. They were prime candidates for a snap-back on any hint of good news.
They weren't alone. A whole roster of war-impacted S&P 500 stocks staged strong daily rebounds. The pattern was clear: the bigger the prior loss, the more eager the relief rally.
So, what's the takeaway? Markets are forward-looking, and sometimes they look forward to a version of events that hasn't been confirmed—and has even been explicitly denied. Monday was a day when hope, fueled by a presidential announcement, trumped a foreign ministry's contradiction. It was a rally built not on a done deal, but on the mere possibility of one. Whether that optimism holds depends on whether the "conversations" Trump cited materialize into something more tangible than a one-day market bounce.
