Here's a story about what happens when an AI startup gets tired of asking the same company for chips. South Korea's AI ambitions are pushing startup Upstage to consider a massive purchase from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) as it looks to build some computing independence from Nvidia Corp (NVDA).
The company is in talks to buy 10,000 of AMD's MI355 AI accelerators. That's not a casual shopping trip—it's a strategic move to expand computing capacity in South Korea and, more importantly, to diversify a supply chain that's been pretty cozy with Nvidia.
Upstage CEO Sung Kim said he discussed the potential purchase during a recent meeting with AMD CEO Lisa Su in Seoul, noting the company aims to diversify beyond its current reliance on Nvidia hardware, according to reports on Monday. Upstage is also participating in a government-backed competition to develop national AI models, where top teams get greater access to Nvidia GPUs. So they're playing both sides, which is usually a smart move in a market with limited suppliers.
What the Charts Say About AMD
Let's talk about the stock. AMD is trading 1.5% above its 20-day simple moving average but 10.4% below its 100-day average. That tells you there's a short-term bounce attempt happening within what's still a damaged intermediate trend. The shares are up 76.84% over the past year, so it's closer to its 52-week highs than lows, which is the kind of problem investors like to have.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 48.83, which is neutral territory. That suggests the recent rebound hasn't yet turned into a full momentum breakout. Meanwhile, the MACD is at -3.3598, while the signal line is at -4.6158. That's a bullish configuration—it points to improving upside pressure, even though the MACD itself remains below zero. When you have an RSI in the 30–50 range with a bullish MACD setup, the momentum is leaning bullish.
- Key Resistance: $220.00
- Key Support: $190.50
Earnings, Estimates, and What Analysts Think
The next big catalyst for the stock is the estimated earnings report on May 5, 2026. Here's what the market is expecting:
- EPS Estimate: $1.18 (Up from 96 cents year-over-year)
- Revenue Estimate: $9.85 Billion (Up from $7.44 Billion year-over-year)
- Valuation: P/E of 77.1x (That indicates a premium valuation relative to peers)
The analyst consensus is a Buy rating with an average price target of $284.63. Recent moves include:
- RBC Capital: Sector Perform (Maintains Target at $230.00) (Mar. 16)
- Goldman Sachs: Neutral (Raises Target to $240.00) (Feb. 25)
- RBC Capital: Sector Perform (Maintains Target at $230.00) (Feb. 25)
So analysts are generally positive but cautious, with price targets suggesting meaningful upside from current levels if the company executes.
ETF Exposure: Why Fund Flows Matter
AMD isn't just a stock—it's a piece of several major ETFs. That means when money moves into or out of these funds, it automatically buys or sells AMD shares. Here's where it shows up:
- iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): 6.51% Weight
- ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW): 7.37% Weight
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXQ): 6.67% Weight
Because AMD carries such heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock. It's a mechanical relationship that can amplify moves.
Price Action
Advanced Micro Devices shares were down 2.00% at $197.30 during premarket trading on Monday, according to market data.
