If you've been holding onto the same phone and plan for about three years, congratulations—you're the most wanted person in America right now. The "Big 3" U.S. carriers—AT&T Inc. (T), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), and T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)—are rolling out the red carpet with discounts and deals as we head into the second quarter of 2026. Why the sudden generosity? Because a whole lot of people are suddenly free to leave.

Remember those 36-month financing plans that became all the rage? Well, time's up. A massive wave of subscribers is rolling off those plans and back into the market, shopping for upgrades. The expiration isn't just about a paid-off phone; it removes the biggest barrier to switching carriers. No more outstanding balance to pay off means customers can jump ship without a second thought. Elevated churn isn't a risk—it's the current reality, and it's the engine driving this new price war.

To make sense of the deal frenzy, Counterpoint Research created a promotional index, scored from 0 to 100, that measures the real consumer value of these offers. It looks at both the monetary benefit and how much hassle is involved to get it. A higher score means a more competitive, customer-friendly promotion. While postpaid promotions in early 2026 started a bit slower than last year, they're now gaining steam year-over-year. Part of that boost came from the later launch of the Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (SSNLF) Galaxy S26 series, which led to stronger pre-launch deals with higher subsidies and fewer hoops to jump through. This lines up with what AT&T's John Stankey has hinted at before: when competition heats up, the deals get better.

Prepaid Gets Picky, Postpaid Goes Wild

Not every part of the market is seeing a discount bonanza. Over in prepaid land, promotions have actually softened compared to last year. Carriers seem to be shifting their marketing dollars, focusing prepaid efforts on a handful of top-selling "champion devices." If your phone brand isn't in that inner circle, you might see less love. Motorola is keeping discounts aggressive even on older models, but smaller players like Orbic are getting less promotional support. It's a classic case of consolidation: go big on the winners, pull back on the rest.

Carriers Eat Samsung's Price Hike

Here's a fun dynamic: Samsung decided to raise prices on parts of its new Galaxy S26 lineup. The S26 256GB got a 5% bump, and the S26 Plus 256GB went up 10%. Normally, that would make carriers' offers look worse. Instead, the carriers basically said, "Don't worry about it." They responded by boosting their own subsidies to make sure the final deal to the customer stayed competitive. T-Mobile's promotion for the S26 Ultra hit the top of the index with a perfect score of 100, thanks to a whopping $1,300 discount that didn't even require a trade-in on premium plans. Verizon and AT&T followed suit, increasing subsidies and making plan and trade-in requirements easier to offset Samsung's higher sticker prices. The message is clear: the carriers are willing to absorb the cost to win your business.

Apple's Steady Hand, Carrier's Mixed Response

Meanwhile, Apple Inc. (AAPL) took a different path. The new iPhone 17e launched with mostly flat pricing year-over-year, even cutting the 512GB variant by $100. With no manufacturer price hike to counter, the carriers' promotional strategies diverged. AT&T's offer stayed the same, which actually made its index score lower relative to the market. Verizon and T-Mobile, however, found other ways to sharpen their pencils, using "non-subsidy levers" to make their iPhone deals more competitive. It shows that in a price war, even a stable launch can lead to very different battlefield tactics.

So, what's next? Counterpoint expects postpaid promotional strength to actually exceed the first half of 2025's levels. The fight for those contract-free customers is just getting started. But there's a caveat: the party might have a limit. Broader macroeconomic pressures, rising costs for components like memory, and potential supply constraints could put a damper on overall market volumes, no matter how aggressive the carrier discounts get. The carriers are all-in on discounts to stop the churn, but they're doing it while navigating some serious headwinds.