Sam Bankman-Fried is still posting on X. He's just doing it from federal prison now. On Wednesday, the convicted mastermind behind the FTX (FTT) collapse decided to weigh in on international geopolitics, lauding the effectiveness of "Operation Epic Fury," the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.

He shared an Al Jazeera op-ed with the confident title "The US-Israeli strategy against Iran is working. Here is why," calling it an "excellent" article. The piece, written by Muhanad Seloom, an assistant professor in Qatar, argues the operation has succeeded in "dismantling" Iran's capacity to wage war—its missiles, drones, and air defenses. It goes further, stating the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei "eliminated the apex of the authorisation pyramid" and that his son's succession "signals institutional fragility, not continuity."

The article does nod to the human cost, noting 1,400 Iranian civilian and six U.S. service member deaths, but frames this against the nuclear "threat" Iran posed. SBF quoted parts of it, adding his own summary: "The costs of striking Iran are real. But so is the nuclear threat."

So, is he right? The op-ed's conclusion dovetails nicely with what former President Donald Trump has been saying publicly—that Iran's war-making ability is "severely diminished" and its missiles are "down to a scatter." However, the picture might be less clear-cut. Reports suggest U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran's leadership remains stable and isn't on the brink of collapse. Furthermore, Joe Kent, who recently stepped down as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, stated Iran "poses no imminent threat" to the United States. The White House, for its part, dismissed Kent's statements as false.

This brings us to the obvious question: what's in it for SBF? Why is a man serving a quarter-century sentence for one of the largest financial frauds in history spending his time endorsing foreign policy analysis?

If you look at his recent social media activity, a pattern emerges. Many of his posts praise Trump's policies, whether on the economy, foreign affairs, or even cryptocurrency regulation. He's also tried to frame Judge Lewis Kaplan—the man who sentenced him and also presided over Trump's federal defamation trial—as a common enemy. To many observers, this looks less like a sudden interest in Middle Eastern security and more like a calculated, and fairly transparent, campaign for a presidential pardon.

The court of public opinion on X, however, seems skeptical of the strategy. Multiple users responded to his latest post by stating these tactics won't secure him a pardon. They might be onto something. Trump himself has previously indicated he has no intention of pardoning Sam Bankman-Fried.

For now, SBF's legal team is pursuing a different avenue. Earlier this month, he filed a request for a new trial, alleging the Justice Department under President Joe Biden threatened key defense witnesses to prevent them from testifying. So while he's talking about Iran on X, his lawyers are fighting a very different battle in the courtroom.