Marketdash

American, United, and Delta: How Three Airlines Are Weathering the Geopolitical Storm

MarketDash
Airplane with American Airlines livery flying in cloudy sky.
The U.S.-Iran conflict has sent jet fuel costs soaring, hitting airline stocks. Here's how American, United, and Delta are faring—and what their CEOs are saying about the turbulence ahead.

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When geopolitical tensions flare, airline investors often buckle up for a bumpy ride. The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran has been no exception, sending jet fuel costs higher and putting pressure on major carriers. Let's check the altitude on three of the biggest: American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL).

Since the conflict began, American Airlines has taken the steepest dive, declining 16.91% through Tuesday. The stock did manage a slight lift of 1.47% to $11.02 in pre-market trading Wednesday, suggesting some traders see a potential bottom. United Airlines hasn't fared much better, down 12.33% over the same period. It was trading at $106 before the conflict and closed Tuesday at $94.46, though it also gained 1.6% in Wednesday's pre-market session.

Delta, however, has shown remarkable stability. It declined just 1.32% to $64.83 on Tuesday and has nearly recovered all its losses, trading at $65.50 in Wednesday's pre-market. For context, it closed at $65.70 just before the conflict began. It's the standout performer in this group, at least in terms of stock price resilience.

But stock prices only tell part of the story. The real impact is showing up on the income statement, thanks to those rising fuel costs. Delta CEO Ed Bastian shared that the conflict has already resulted in over $400 million in additional charges for the airline. Despite that headwind, Delta expects its first-quarter revenue growth to be in the high single digits, with revenue up 25% year-over-year.

American Airlines, meanwhile, is projecting its first-quarter revenue will rise more than 10% year-over-year. It also expects its adjusted loss per share to land at the lower end of its guidance range of 10 to 50 cents. So, even with the stock under pressure, the underlying business outlook isn't all doom and gloom.

The root cause, of course, is the conflict itself, now in its 19th day. It's pushed oil prices higher globally, affecting fuel costs across multiple sectors. There might be a reprieve on the horizon, though. President Donald Trump has signaled a potential withdrawal from the conflict, and his top counterterrorism official, Joe Kent, recently resigned in protest of the escalating tensions. Sometimes the market moves on headlines before the headlines become reality.

So, what's the takeaway for investors? Airlines are caught in a classic squeeze: strong travel demand and revenue growth on one side, geopolitical risk and spiking input costs on the other. Delta seems to be navigating it best so far, at least in the market's eyes. American and United are taking a harder hit, but their fundamentals suggest they're still flying forward, even if the stock price is experiencing some turbulence. It's a reminder that in the airline business, you have to watch both the economics and the geopolitics—because they're often on the same flight path.

American, United, and Delta: How Three Airlines Are Weathering the Geopolitical Storm

MarketDash
Airplane with American Airlines livery flying in cloudy sky.
The U.S.-Iran conflict has sent jet fuel costs soaring, hitting airline stocks. Here's how American, United, and Delta are faring—and what their CEOs are saying about the turbulence ahead.

Get American Airlines Group Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

When geopolitical tensions flare, airline investors often buckle up for a bumpy ride. The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran has been no exception, sending jet fuel costs higher and putting pressure on major carriers. Let's check the altitude on three of the biggest: American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL).

Since the conflict began, American Airlines has taken the steepest dive, declining 16.91% through Tuesday. The stock did manage a slight lift of 1.47% to $11.02 in pre-market trading Wednesday, suggesting some traders see a potential bottom. United Airlines hasn't fared much better, down 12.33% over the same period. It was trading at $106 before the conflict and closed Tuesday at $94.46, though it also gained 1.6% in Wednesday's pre-market session.

Delta, however, has shown remarkable stability. It declined just 1.32% to $64.83 on Tuesday and has nearly recovered all its losses, trading at $65.50 in Wednesday's pre-market. For context, it closed at $65.70 just before the conflict began. It's the standout performer in this group, at least in terms of stock price resilience.

But stock prices only tell part of the story. The real impact is showing up on the income statement, thanks to those rising fuel costs. Delta CEO Ed Bastian shared that the conflict has already resulted in over $400 million in additional charges for the airline. Despite that headwind, Delta expects its first-quarter revenue growth to be in the high single digits, with revenue up 25% year-over-year.

American Airlines, meanwhile, is projecting its first-quarter revenue will rise more than 10% year-over-year. It also expects its adjusted loss per share to land at the lower end of its guidance range of 10 to 50 cents. So, even with the stock under pressure, the underlying business outlook isn't all doom and gloom.

The root cause, of course, is the conflict itself, now in its 19th day. It's pushed oil prices higher globally, affecting fuel costs across multiple sectors. There might be a reprieve on the horizon, though. President Donald Trump has signaled a potential withdrawal from the conflict, and his top counterterrorism official, Joe Kent, recently resigned in protest of the escalating tensions. Sometimes the market moves on headlines before the headlines become reality.

So, what's the takeaway for investors? Airlines are caught in a classic squeeze: strong travel demand and revenue growth on one side, geopolitical risk and spiking input costs on the other. Delta seems to be navigating it best so far, at least in the market's eyes. American and United are taking a harder hit, but their fundamentals suggest they're still flying forward, even if the stock price is experiencing some turbulence. It's a reminder that in the airline business, you have to watch both the economics and the geopolitics—because they're often on the same flight path.