So, you know how sometimes a company's stock just has a bad day? Well, SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI) had one of those on Tuesday, and it wasn't just because of a rough market. The fintech stock traded lower after a pretty brutal report landed from the short-seller shop, Muddy Waters Research. They didn't mince words, calling SoFi a "financial engineering treadmill." That's the kind of phrase that tends to make investors a bit nervous.
Here's the gist of what has everyone talking.
The Big Number Everyone's Arguing About
The core of the Muddy Waters argument is about earnings, specifically a metric called Adjusted EBITDA. SoFi has told the market it expects about $1,054 million for 2025. Muddy Waters says, not so fast. They claim that number is inflated by roughly 90%. If their math is right, the truer figure is just $103 million. That's a massive gap. The short-seller alleges that shareholders are being diluted so management can hit bonus targets, using what they call "GE Capital-style" loan marks and "Enron-esque" off-balance-sheet tricks to dress up the books.
Are the Loan Losses as Good as They Seem?
Another major red flag in the report is about loan quality. When you lend money, some people don't pay it back. That's a charge-off. SoFi reports its personal loan charge-off rate at 2.89%. Muddy Waters says the real rate is more like 6.1%—more than double. How could that happen? The report alleges SoFi is playing a shell game: moving loans off its books right before they'd officially be counted as a loss and "parking" defaulted loans in special entities that don't get consolidated into the main financial statements.












