So, here's the situation with oil right now: it's complicated, a bit scary, and hinges on a narrow strip of water you've probably never thought much about. Energy markets are in a period of high uncertainty, all thanks to disruptions to oil and gas flows through the Persian Gulf. New research from ING has been trying to map out just how long and how bad this current supply shock might get.

The bank's commodities team has a pretty clear warning. The complex risk swirling around the Strait of Hormuz—that critical chokepoint where a huge chunk of the world's energy trade squeezes through—means markets need to buckle up. We're likely looking at a longer period of constrained supply and, you guessed it, elevated prices.

"There are few signs of de-escalation or a resumption in energy flows from the Persian Gulf," said Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING. "The market is having to reprice the duration of ongoing supply disruptions."

And here's the kicker: if this conflict drags on and attacks keep choking off shipments through Hormuz, oil prices could not just rise, but potentially blow past the 2008 highs and spike to brand new record levels. That's the sobering view from the Dutch bank.

The Spare Capacity Problem (It's Not as Helpful as You'd Think)

The disruption is already massive. We're talking about around 8 million barrels per day of crude production that's been shut in so far. Even after you account for pipeline routes that bypass the strait, up to 15 million barrels per day of oil flows are still affected.

ING argues this scale makes it really tough for other suppliers to jump in and save the day quickly. A lot of OPEC's spare capacity is, inconveniently, located in the same affected Gulf region, so potential relief is limited. Sure, emergency releases from strategic reserves can help, but that's a short-term band-aid. And increases in U.S. output? They'd be too little, too late.

"Additional supply from the U.S. would likely take at least six months to come online, and the volumes will only be a fraction of the losses we are currently seeing," Patterson said. So, don't count on a shale miracle to fix this overnight.

Three Ways This Could Go

ING laid out three potential paths for how this crisis might play out. Think of it as a choose-your-own-adventure book, but where all the endings involve expensive gasoline.

In their base scenario, energy flows through Hormuz stay largely messed up until the end of March. Then, a gradual easing of hostilities and some renewed diplomatic chatter would slowly get shipments moving again in the second quarter. Production and refining would ramp up over time. Under this path, markets stay tight well into the summer, keeping Brent crude prices elevated around that $100 per barrel range as supply chains only gradually heal.

In a more optimistic scenario, the conflict de-escalates faster. Disruptions would still last through March, but improving security would start recovering flows by April and get things close to normal by May. With shipments stabilizing quicker, oil prices would likely moderate back toward roughly $90 per barrel as the scary "risk premium" in the price gradually fades away.

Then there's the more aggressive downside scenario. This is the one that keeps oil traders up at night. In this case, hostilities continue right through April, followed by a prolonged period of lower-level confrontation. Continued attacks on ships in Hormuz would keep flows constrained through May, delaying any real recovery until the summer.

If that happens, Patterson warned that prices could surge dramatically. "Oil prices would spike to record highs under this scenario," he said, noting that painfully high prices would probably be needed to curb demand and rebalance the market. For context, the current all-time high for WTI oil is around $147.27 per barrel.

And here's something else: natural gas markets could be under even greater pressure. This disruption affects roughly 20% of global LNG trade. There are very limited options to replace that lost supply, which increases the likelihood that the only way to restore balance will be through "demand destruction"—a fancy term for prices getting so high that people and businesses simply use less.