Micron's AI Memory Party Might Just Be Getting Started, Analysts Say

MarketDash

Mar 16, 6:30 PM

Wall Street is getting louder about Micron's prospects, with analysts hiking price targets and forecasting massive earnings growth through 2027, all fueled by the relentless demand for AI memory.

Key Points

Analysts from TD Cowen and RBC Capital have significantly raised their price targets and earnings forecasts for Micron, citing strong memory pricing and surging AI demand.
The AI-driven memory upcycle is expected to extend into 2027, with data centers now driving over half of industry DRAM revenue and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply sold out for 2026.
Future stock performance may hinge less on quarterly earnings beats and more on whether the market re-rates Micron's valuation multiple higher, supported by long-term supply agreements.
Analysts project staggering earnings per share growth, with forecasts reaching $65 for 2026 and up to $90 or more for 2027, based on continued pricing strength and AI hardware demands.
While the outlook is bullish, analysts caution about potential risks, including customer inventory build-up that could trigger a market correction similar to 2021-2022.

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So, you know that whole AI boom thing? It turns out it needs a lot of memory. And the companies that make that memory, like Micron Technology Inc. (MU), are sitting in a pretty sweet spot. Analysts are getting increasingly excited, turning up the volume on their bullish calls and painting a picture of a growth story that could last for years.

It's not just about one good quarter; it's about a fundamental shift in demand that's rewriting the rulebook for memory chips.

TD Cowen: Betting on a Valuation Re-Rating

Over at TD Cowen, analyst Krish Sankar is keeping his Buy rating on Micron but getting more aggressive with his numbers. He's bumped his price target up from $450 to $500. Why the optimism? He's expecting a strong earnings beat and has dramatically raised his long-term earnings per share (EPS) forecasts.

Sankar models Micron pulling in $65 EPS for 2026 and a whopping $90 EPS for 2027. He even sees potential for another 15% upside to that 2027 number, which could push earnings above $100 per share. For the near term, he expects Micron to report $10.40 EPS for the February quarter, well above the Street's estimate of $8.82.

But here's the interesting twist from Sankar: he thinks the future stock gains will depend less on surprising everyone with big quarterly numbers and more on something a bit more abstract—a valuation re-rating. In other words, will the market start valuing Micron's earnings more highly once it's convinced this boom is durable?

The key to that conviction, he argues, is long-term agreements (LTAs). These multi-quarter contracts with big customers could establish a solid floor for profit margins after 2027. He compares it to the hard disk drive industry, where similar contracts and disciplined supply have allowed companies to trade at roughly twice the valuation multiple of memory stocks.

Sankar's research suggests the DRAM market will remain the tightest over the next two years. But he's not blind to risk, warning that customer inventory build-up could eventually trigger a correction, with clearer signals on that front expected in the coming quarters.

RBC Capital: Riding the AI Wave into 2027

Meanwhile, at RBC Capital, analyst Srini Pajjuri is also turning up the dial. He reiterated his Outperform rating and jacked his price target from $425 all the way up to $525.

His thesis is straightforward: continued strength in memory pricing and insatiable demand from AI and data centers. He notes that DRAM contract pricing is expected to soar, with industry tracker TrendForce projecting 80–85% growth just in the first calendar quarter of this year.

Pajjuri's model assumes more than 70% blended DRAM pricing growth for Micron in the February 2026 quarter. Based on that, he's sharply raised his forecasts. He now sees revenue of $25.5 billion and EPS of $13.52 for that quarter, up from prior estimates of $18.7 billion and $8.42. His gross margin estimate sits at a hefty 76.5%.

Looking further out, he lifted his full-year EPS estimates to $54.30 for 2026 and $75.44 for 2027. He believes AI and data center demand will extend the current memory upcycle right through 2027. A telling stat: data centers now generate more than half of all industry DRAM revenue.

The star of the show is high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a special type of memory crucial for AI accelerators. Micron's management has said HBM supply is already sold out for 2026. The next generation, HBM4, is expected to start volume shipments early next year. While Pajjuri expects prices for the current HBM3E to dip modestly in 2026, he believes HBM4 could command a 30–50% premium.

He also highlights the sheer growth in memory capacity needed for new AI hardware, noting that next-generation GPUs could require about 3.5 times as much HBM as earlier systems. In his view, this AI-driven demand is powerful enough to more than offset any potential softness in markets like PCs and smartphones.

So, what's the bottom line? The analysts are telling a story of a company at the epicenter of a multi-year transformation. It's not just about selling more chips; it's about selling more valuable chips into a market that can't seem to get enough. The numbers they're throwing around—$90 EPS by 2027—are the kind that make investors sit up and take notice. Of course, in the cyclical world of semiconductors, nothing goes up forever without a pause, and both analysts are keeping an eye on the horizon for potential bumps. But for now, the narrative is overwhelmingly about how the AI memory stampede is just getting started.