Here's some news that might make you want to walk to work: national gasoline prices are climbing fast and could hit $3.85 per gallon within days. That's the warning from Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, who says the dreaded $4 per gallon mark remains possible. And if you think diesel is a safe haven, think again—it could climb to $5.05–$5.15 per gallon.

De Haan laid out this cheerful forecast in a series of posts on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday. It's not just speculation; the numbers are already moving. According to GasBuddy data, the national average has already reached $3.70 per gallon. That's the highest it's been since October 6, 2023.

Let's break down that climb: prices are up 23.2 cents over the past week and a whopping 80.0 cents from a month ago. Compared to a year ago, we're looking at a 66.1-cent increase. In practical terms, De Haan notes that "Americans today will spend $307 million more on gasoline than a month ago." That's not a typo—$307 million more every single day. Diesel isn't faring any better, sitting at $4.951 per gallon nationally, up 34.0 cents in a week and flirting with the $5 mark.

Midwest Price Hikes Are the Engine Driving This Train

So what's pushing prices higher? De Haan pointed to sharp increases across the Midwest on Monday, citing two main culprits: the annual switch to more expensive summer-blend gasoline and, you guessed it, geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

He said price hikes are now kicking off in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, and Missouri. This regional surge is expected to push the national average to $3.75–$3.80 by the middle of the week. When asked if falling oil prices could provide some relief, De Haan offered a nuanced yes: "oil and products don't always move together, and there's more coming down that retailers haven't passed on yet." He added that the full impact would likely materialize "in the next ~week." So there might be a slight delay in any potential relief.

The Strait of Hormuz Is Squeezing the Pump

The bigger, global picture is tied directly to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil shipments. De Haan explained in a Substack post: "Until we see a meaningful resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, upward pressure on fuel prices is likely to persist. At the same time, seasonal forces are beginning to intensify as several regions complete the transition to summer gasoline, creating a double headwind that could continue driving pump prices higher in the weeks ahead."

He also noted an interesting contrast: while some Asian countries have started restricting fuel consumption and sales to manage supply, the U.S. "is a bit more insulated from supply, but not price." In other words, we might have enough gas, but we're definitely going to pay more for it.

Meanwhile, energy funds were trading mixed on Monday. Here's a quick look at how some major oil and gas ETFs fared:

The bottom line? A combination of seasonal refinery changes and instability in a key global oil route is creating a perfect storm at the pump. While $4 per gallon isn't here yet, the road ahead looks expensive.