Here's a bit of good news for your wallet: the person in charge of U.S. energy policy thinks there's a solid shot you'll be paying less at the pump by the time you're firing up the grill this summer.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in an interview on NBC News's "Meet the Press," expressed optimism when asked about the possibility of gas prices falling below the $3 per gallon mark. "There's a very good chance that'll be true," Wright said.

So, what's the magic ingredient for cheaper gas? According to Wright, it's about removing a major source of global risk. He believes the U.S. is on the brink of "removing the risk" posed by Iran's ongoing threat to global energy supplies. He's looking ahead to a post-war scenario where energy is "more abundant, more affordable, and less risky for American soldiers and commerce in the Middle East."

One critical piece of that puzzle is the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping chokepoint. Wright acknowledged the current risks to ships there but assured that its safe reopening is a major post-conflict goal. He emphasized that while war outcomes can't be guaranteed, the administration is committed to the path that could lead to lower prices.

This is no small promise, given what drivers are feeling right now. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has been a significant factor in the current price surge. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average price per gallon is sitting at $3.718. "Americans are feeling it right now. Americans will feel it for a few more weeks," Wright conceded.

Political Echoes on Pump Prices

Wright's summer forecast lines up with his previous optimism about the Iran conflict potentially concluding in the coming weeks, which would theoretically take pressure off energy markets.

He's not the only one in Washington talking down current price concerns. In a call with NBC News, President Donald Trump dismissed worries about U.S. gas prices, saying they are likely to drop below previous levels and recalling that he had lowered them to record lows during his administration.

Interestingly, Wright had earlier dismissed fears about a Strait of Hormuz closure, stating that U.S. military action is reducing Iran's ability to attack shipping—a point that seems to underpin his confidence in a safer, post-conflict trade route.

The Other Side of the Pump: Analyst and Legislative Concerns

Not everyone is penciling in sub-$3 gas just yet. The war's economic impact and its effect on energy prices have raised significant concerns on Capitol Hill and among market watchers.

Senator Mark Kelly has called for gas tax relief, questioning how the ongoing conflict benefits Americans who are grappling with rising living costs. Kelly said he introduced legislation to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax to help reduce pump prices, while frankly noting the measure may not fully counter rising fuel costs.

Perhaps the most sobering counterpoint comes from the data side. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy told Forbes that U.S. gas prices are expected to stay high through much of the year, even if short-term crude oil fluctuations calm down. Haan said that gas prices aren't likely to drop to pre-war prices "until later this year," suggesting the road back to normal might be longer than a summer drive.

So, we have the optimism of policymakers banking on a geopolitical resolution, set against the cautious analysis of those who track prices every day. The Energy Secretary sees a "very good chance" for relief. The analyst sees sustained high prices. For now, American drivers are stuck in the middle, paying an average of $3.718 and waiting to see which forecast hits the road.