Here's a puzzle for you: Oil prices are spiking, tensions in the Middle East are keeping everyone on edge, and gasoline is getting more expensive by the day. In theory, this should be prime time for electric vehicle sales to take off. But according to investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) isn't capitalizing on the moment.
In a post on X on Monday, Black pointed out the obvious disconnect. Brent crude is sitting near $105 per barrel, there's "no sign of the Middle East war ending anytime soon," and yet Tesla's sales aren't showing the surge you might expect. It's like watching a baseball game where the bases are loaded, the pitcher is struggling, and your best hitter just... doesn't swing.
"Unfortunately, there is no advertising from TSLA educating potential consumers on the benefits of EVs," Black wrote. He listed the usual suspects—charging infrastructure, performance, and Tesla's much-discussed Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology—as selling points that regular people might not even know about. "Tesla bulls keep talking up the FSD technology, but absent the devoted on X, nobody has a clue how great this technology is," he added.
Think about it: when gas prices jump, conversations about fuel efficiency naturally follow. It's a perfect opening for Tesla to step in and say, "Hey, remember us? We don't use gas at all." But according to Black, that conversation isn't happening because Tesla isn't really having it with the broader public.
This isn't just about missed marketing opportunities. Black had previously noted that Tesla could theoretically see a sales bump from rising gas prices. But there's a flip side: as the conflict drags on and oil keeps climbing, it fuels inflation. Higher inflation typically means higher interest rates, which pushes up yields on things like 10-year Treasury notes. That makes future earnings—like those from a growth company like Tesla—worth less in today's dollars, potentially putting downward pressure on the stock price. So it's a weird spot: the environment that should help sell more cars might also hurt the company's valuation.
Meanwhile, over in Europe, the story is a bit more positive, but with a catch. Tesla reported a 10% growth in vehicle registrations across the continent in February, with notable gains in France, Portugal, and Germany. The company registered 17,425 vehicles there for the month. However, the year-to-date sales for 2026 remained flat. So, a monthly uptick is good, but it hasn't translated into sustained growth for the year so far.
Back in the U.S., the pain at the pump is very real. Amid the tensions with Iran, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) criticized the Trump administration as gasoline prices continued their climb. The national average hit $3.699 per gallon on Sunday, with Californians facing a particularly steep $5.05 per gallon. When filling up a car starts feeling like a major financial decision, the economic logic for switching to an EV gets stronger. Yet, the sales data isn't reflecting that shift en masse.
During pre-market trading on Monday, TSLA shares gained 0.82% to $394.39. Market data shows Tesla scores well on momentum metrics and maintains a favorable long-term price trend.
