U.S. stock futures pointed higher Monday morning, trying to shake off a downbeat Friday session. It's one of those mornings where the market seems to be weighing geopolitical noise against corporate news and bracing for a big week of economic data.

Over the weekend, former President Donald Trump made headlines by urging nations that rely on the Strait of Hormuz—that narrow waterway where a huge chunk of the world's oil passes—to deploy military assets like minesweepers to help secure it. He reportedly warned NATO allies there would be consequences for not pitching in. It's the kind of geopolitical development that can make oil traders nervous and add a layer of uncertainty to markets already worried about inflation.

In a lighter, if bizarre, note from abroad, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took to social media to dismiss rumors of his death, appearing at a café in a video to joke with the public. Markets can handle a lot, but apparently not rumors of a leader's demise.

Meanwhile, the bond market was relatively calm. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.26%, with the two-year at 3.70%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is virtually certain—99.1%—that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged when it meets this week. The question isn't about a hike or cut; it's about what the Fed says about everything else.

Here's how the major index futures were shaping up early Monday:

The ETFs that track the broad market were also in the green. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.40% at $664.91 in premarket trading, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which follows the Nasdaq 100, advanced 0.44% to $596.36.

Stocks on the Move

While the broader market nudged higher, a few individual stocks were making much bigger waves in premarket trading.

Urgent.ly

The biggest mover by far was Urgent.ly Inc. (ULY). Its shares skyrocketed 161.08% after the company announced it had been acquired by Agero for $5.50 in cash per share. On top of that, the company reported fourth-quarter financial results that beat expectations. It's a classic "take-private" pop. Despite the huge gain, market data indicated that ULY had maintained a weaker price trend across short, medium, and long-term timeframes prior to this news.

Adobe

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) shares were up 0.63% in premarket trading. The move came even as the software giant agreed to a $150 million settlement with the Justice Department. The settlement resolves allegations that Adobe's subscription and cancellation practices were deceptive and violated the Restore Online Shoppers' Confidence Act. Sometimes, when a legal overhang is resolved, even with a large fine, the market breathes a sigh of relief. Market data suggested ADBE also had a weaker price trend and a moderate quality score.

MicroStrategy

MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)—often referred to as a Bitcoin proxy—was up 3.45%. The move tracked the price of Bitcoin (BTC), which was hovering around the $73,000 mark. Adding fuel to the fire, a significant investor in MSTR's financial instruments, Strive Inc. (ASST), allocated $50 million last week to MicroStrategy's Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock. Market data indicated MSTR had a weaker price trend.

Getty Images Holdings

Getty Images Holdings Inc. (GETY) rose 4.31% as analysts expected the company to report earnings after the closing bell. Wall Street was looking for earnings of 3 cents per share on revenue of $246.22 million. Market data showed GETY with a weak price trend.

Semtech

Semtech Corp. (SMTC) was 0.39% higher ahead of its own earnings report after the bell. Analysts were expecting earnings of 43 cents per share on revenue of $273.20 million. Interestingly, market data indicated that SMTC maintained a strong price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, though it had a poor value score.

Looking Back at Friday's Slide

Monday's tentative gains followed a down session on Friday. Information technology, materials, and communication services sectors led the decline, though consumer staples and utilities managed to close higher. The sell-off came as investors weighed weak GDP revisions against stubbornly high inflation and the potential for oil market shocks from the war in the Middle East.

Analyst Insights: A Sobering Outlook

Prominent economist Mohamed El-Erian painted a sobering picture of the current economic landscape. He described a U.S. economy caught between "persistent inflation" and a sharp growth slowdown. He noted that with fourth-quarter GDP revised down to 0.7%, the American economy was losing steam even before the recent escalation of the war in the Middle East.

El-Erian argued this conflict has shifted from a short-term disruption to a source of "structural damage" that threatens systemic financial instability. For the stock market, he highlighted a breakdown in traditional diversification, pointing out that both stocks and bonds lost ground last week. "Investors struggled to find safety," he observed, with markets increasingly vulnerable to "market indigestion."

The persistence of sticky inflation at 3.1%—well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target—further complicates the outlook. El-Erian warned that the targeting of energy infrastructure marks a "new, more dangerous phase" for global markets. He cautioned that without a diplomatic breakthrough, the fallout would extend beyond high energy prices to include "broader inflationary pressures, lower growth, higher unemployment, and a greater risk of systemic financial instability."

For investors, he said the immediate future remains locked on the war's duration and its capacity to fundamentally "complicate the policy outlook" for the Fed.

The Week Ahead: Data and the Fed

Investors have a full plate of economic data to digest this week, culminating in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

• Monday: March's Empire State manufacturing survey (8:30 a.m. ET); February's industrial production and capacity utilization (9:15 a.m. ET).
• Tuesday: February's pending home sales and March's Home Builder Confidence Index (10:00 a.m. ET).
• Wednesday: February's Producer Price Index (PPI), Core PPI, and year-over-year PPI (8:30 a.m. ET); January's factory orders (10:00 a.m. ET). The main event: the FOMC interest-rate decision (2:00 p.m. ET), followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference (2:30 p.m. ET).
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims and March's Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (8:30 a.m. ET); January's wholesale inventories and new home sales (10:00 a.m. ET).
• Friday: No major economic reports scheduled.

Commodities, Crypto, and Global Markets

In commodity markets, crude oil futures were trading higher, up 2.21% to around $98.98 per barrel in early New York trading—a move likely influenced by the heightened focus on the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold was down slightly, with the spot price falling 0.51% to hover around $4,993.80 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index was essentially flat, down a mere 0.02% at the 100.2550 level.

In the crypto world, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 2.37% higher at $73,270.99.

Asian markets closed mixed on Monday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, and South Korea's Kospi indices rose, while India’s Nifty 50, Australia's ASX 200, and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell. European markets were mostly lower in early trade.