So here's a dramatic idea that's apparently on the table: seizing an island. Not just any island, but the one that serves as Iran's primary oil spigot. According to a report, President Donald Trump is considering the capture of Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal located about 15 miles off its coast.
Think of it as going straight for the wallet. The island handles nearly 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. A source told Axios that Trump is "drawn" to the concept because it could lead to "an economic knockout of the regime." Of course, it would also require putting U.S. military forces on the ground, which is... a significant step.
The report suggests this is being discussed as a way to break a continuing blockade in the Persian Gulf that's hindering oil shipments and, the thinking goes, preventing Trump from ending the conflict even if he wanted to. The idea has its cheerleaders. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a prominent Iran critic, praised what he called Trump's "decision to take the war to Kharg Island" over the weekend, forecasting that Iran's economy would be "annihilated" if it lost control of the hub.
But there's a flip side. Such a move could trigger Iranian counterattacks on oil facilities and pipelines across the Gulf, particularly in Saudi Arabia. It's the kind of high-stakes escalation that makes military planners nervous.
This talk of capturing the island comes just after Trump said on Friday that U.S. Central Command "obliterated" all military targets in a major bombing raid on the island's oil export terminal. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz added that further strikes on the facility remain possible. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from MarketDash.
Meanwhile, Building a Coalition Proves Tricky
While the island capture is reportedly under consideration, the administration is also working on a more conventional, if still complex, plan: forming a coalition to escort ships through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. An announcement could come as early as this week, though it might change based on battlefield conditions.
The backdrop for all this is oil prices marching higher. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading up 1.43% at $100.21 per barrel early Monday.
Trump, speaking to reporters on Air Force One on Sunday, framed the issue as one for other nations to solve. He said the U.S., with its own oil access, doesn't rely on the shipping channel and urged other countries to protect their own territory. He mentioned contacting seven countries for potential support—without naming them—though he has previously suggested China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK could take part.
Support could include sending minesweepers and other naval equipment to counter drones and naval mines in the area. Trump also issued a warning to NATO allies in an interview with the Financial Times, suggesting they could face "very bad" consequences if they don't contribute to securing the route.
Building this "Hormuz Coalition," however, might be easier said than done. A Reuters report on Monday indicated that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Australia have "no plans" to send warships to the Strait. Getting allies to sign up for a potentially volatile mission in a tense region is its own kind of battle.
So the strategy appears to be two-pronged: publicly working to assemble an international naval coalition while privately weighing a far more direct and unilateral military strike at the heart of Iran's oil economy. One is a diplomatic puzzle; the other is a potential geopolitical earthquake. Markets, and the world, are watching to see which path is taken.
