Here's a fun way to think about whether Congress will ever stop trading stocks: ask the gamblers. Not the political pundits, but the people putting real money on prediction markets. And right now, those punters are saying, "Don't bet on it."
Despite all the noise about conflicts of interest, a market on Kalshi shows just a 15% chance that members of Congress will be banned from trading individual stocks before 2027. The odds get a bit better—up to 57%—if you extend the deadline to before January 21, 2029. A similar bet on the crypto-based platform Polymarket gave it a 22% shot this year.
It's worth noting what "ban" means here. The proposals floating around, like the HONEST Act, typically aim to stop lawmakers from picking individual stocks. They'd still likely be allowed to put their money in blind trusts, or broad baskets like ETFs and mutual funds. So it's not about becoming monkish ascetics; it's about avoiding the appearance (or reality) of trading on non-public information.
The debate is, of course, intensely political and personal. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has been a central figure, both for the scrutiny of her and her husband's successful trades and for her support of legislation that was, until recently, nicknamed the PELOSI Act. On the other side of the aisle, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) raised eyebrows last year for buying shares as the market dipped on news of former President Donald Trump's tariff plans.
This isn't a new problem. The 2012 STOCK Act was supposed to fix it by requiring timely disclosure of trades. But members from both parties have blown past the 45-day reporting rule, which just makes the whole system look worse.
So why are the prediction markets so skeptical? Maybe it's the classic problem of getting politicians to vote against their own perceived interests. Or maybe it's just legislative gridlock. But not everyone thinks it will drag on forever. Chris Josephs, co-founder of Autopilot—a platform that lets users copy the trading activity of Pelosi and her husband—told MarketDash that a ban could come "sooner than later because people are sick of it."
The public might be sick of it, but the smart money, for now, is on more talk than action. The bettors seem to think Congress will keep finding reasons to kick this can down the road, at least for a few more years.
