So, Meta Platforms (META) stock is having a bit of a rough Friday. It's down sharply, and the reason is a story that feels very 2024: an internal AI project, code-named "Avocado," isn't quite ripe yet.
According to reports, this foundational AI model—the kind of big, general-purpose brain that companies are racing to build—is lagging in internal evaluations. Specifically, it's reportedly not keeping up with the newer models from rivals like Alphabet (GOOG) and the well-funded startup Anthropic. While "Avocado" apparently beat earlier versions of Google's Gemini model, it couldn't match the latest release. That's the kind of detail that makes investors nervous in a race where being second-best can feel like being last.
When Your AI Needs More Time on the Vine
Because of this performance gap, Meta has reportedly pushed the launch back. The model was originally slated for a March debut, but now it's looking like May at the earliest. In the fast-moving world of AI, a two-month delay isn't necessarily a catastrophe, but it's a signal that the competition is fierce and the technical hurdles are real. It's a reminder that for all the hype, building these systems is incredibly hard.
The $135 Billion Bet Behind the Scenes
This comes as CEO Mark Zuckerberg is making an enormous, long-term pivot. Meta has projected that its capital expenditure—the money it spends on physical assets like buildings and equipment—could hit a staggering $135 billion by 2026. The goal? To build gigawatt-scale data centers to power this next generation of AI.
It's a bet-the-company kind of move, shifting resources toward what it sees as the future. But it's also drawing scrutiny. Famed investor Michael Burry has warned that tech giants are abruptly pulling back on share buybacks to fund these soaring costs. When a company stops returning cash to shareholders to pour it into a massive, uncertain project, Wall Street pays very close attention.
What the Charts Are Saying
On a technical level, the stock's action reflects the uncertainty. As of this writing, Meta is trading about 3.4% below its 20-day moving average and 4.4% below its 100-day average. That keeps the near-to-intermediate trend pointed downward for now. The stock is caught between its 52-week high and low, with key resistance seen around $673 and support near $600.
It's worth noting that despite the recent pressure, shares are still up nearly 5% over the past year. This isn't a collapse; it's a recalibration based on new information.
The Big Picture: Earnings and Expectations
The next major catalyst for the stock is likely the earnings report, estimated for April 29. The expectations are high: analysts are looking for earnings per share of $6.63 (up from $6.43 a year ago) and revenue of $55.40 billion (a significant jump from $42.31 billion).
The valuation remains premium at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.2x, but the analyst community is still largely bullish. The stock carries a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $851.86. Recent moves include Wells Fargo raising its target to $856, Argus Research maintaining a Buy with an $800 target, and DA Davidson boosting its target to $850.
So, what's the takeaway? Meta is in the middle of a hugely expensive, high-stakes transition. Today's news about "Avocado" is a bump in that road—a reminder that execution matters and that Alphabet and others aren't standing still. The long-term thesis, supported by those analyst targets, is that Meta's scale and investment will pay off. But for today, investors are digesting the reality that even the biggest tech bets don't always go according to plan right out of the gate.
