So here's a thing that happens when you're a former president doing a radio interview: you can casually mention that the United States might start escorting ships through one of the world's most important oil chokepoints. That's essentially what Donald Trump did in a conversation with Brian Kilmeade on Fox News Radio, set to air Friday. When asked about helping oil tankers navigate the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, "We would do it if we needed to. But, you know, hopefully things are going to go very well."

It's the kind of statement that sounds almost offhand but carries significant weight for global energy markets. The strait is the pinch point through which about a fifth of the world's oil supply flows. Several foreign ships in or near the waterway have been struck this week amid escalating regional tensions, making the offer of U.S. naval escorts a notable, if vague, proposition.

Trump didn't stop there. He added that the U.S. would strike Iran "very hard over the next week." He provided no further details on what that might entail, but the comment underscores the heightened rhetoric surrounding a conflict that is now in its 14th day.

Oil Prices and a Closed Chokepoint

All this talk of escorts and strikes isn't happening in a vacuum. It's happening while Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, is dancing around the $100-per-barrel mark. On Friday morning, Brent futures were down 1.31% at $99.34, after closing above $100 the previous day. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 2.29% at $93.35.

The volatility is understandable. On one side, you have Trump floating the idea of U.S. protection for commercial traffic. On the other, you have Iran's new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who said on Thursday that Iran would fight on and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the U.S. and Israel. It's a classic standoff: one side threatening to close the tap, the other offering to guard it.

Amid the tensions, commerce is trying to continue. An Indian government official told Reuters on Friday that an India-flagged oil tanker carrying gasoline bound for Africa had passed through the eastern part of the strait. It's a small data point, but an important one—it shows that movement is still possible, even if every transit now comes with a higher risk premium baked into the price of oil.

The Question of Iran's Leadership

In the same interview, Trump was asked about Khamenei, who has been absent from public view since the conflict began. Trump said he believes Khamenei is "probably" alive but "damaged."

The absence has fueled speculation. A CNN report this week indicated that Khamenei suffered a fractured foot and minor facial injuries, including a bruised eye and small cuts, during the first day of bombardment. His condition and the uncertainty over Iran's leadership add another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation. If the person vowing to keep the strait closed is himself physically compromised, it raises questions about the stability and direction of Iran's strategy.

So, where does this leave us? You have a critical maritime chokepoint that's become a focal point of geopolitical tension. You have oil prices reacting to every headline. You have a former U.S. president offering naval escorts and promising severe strikes, while Iran's leader vows to keep the passage shut. And through it all, tankers are still moving, cautiously, with the world watching and the price of crude ticking up and down with each new development. It's a reminder that in global energy markets, geography is destiny, and the narrow waters of the Hormuz Strait are where a lot of that destiny gets decided.