So here's the thing about oil prices: they're complicated. When they go up, it's good for some people and bad for others. On Thursday, President Donald Trump offered a particularly sunny take. "The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money," he wrote on social media.

Wall Street, watching stocks fall and a key volatility gauge spike, had a different, less cheerful interpretation. To the market, higher oil isn't a windfall—it's a tax. It's money being sucked out of consumers' pockets and corporate profit margins, which tends to make investors nervous.

The reason for the latest price jump was clear. West Texas Intermediate crude surged roughly 8% to top $94 per barrel. The new catalyst came from Tehran, where Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued a statement that hardened the economic conflict. "Strait of Hormuz should stay closed…" and "should be continued as a tool to pressure the enemy," the broadcast said.

This wasn't just saber-rattling; it was a declaration of economic coercion. It reframed the blockade from a tactical move into a stated, deliberate strategy. "The thing with this war is that there's no easy off-ramp for Trump," said Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "Simply declaring 'mission accomplished' won't cut it if Iran keeps attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has leverage Venezuela and others didn't have and it's using it. A problem."

Reports suggested reopening the critical waterway might ultimately require a ground operation to seize the Iranian coastline—a step military analysts described as potentially open-ended and carrying significantly higher risks.

The market's verdict on all this was unambiguous. The S&P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) – fell about 1.1%. The Nasdaq-100 dropped 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid roughly 1.3%. The lone bright spot? The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), which rose 0.5% as the only S&P sector in positive territory.

Meanwhile, the analysts at Goldman Sachs were busy recalculating. The bank's commodity strategists moved their Brent crude forecasts sharply higher. In their base case, they now expect Brent to average $98 in March and April—up roughly 40% from the 2025 average—before declining to $71 by late 2026.

But then there's the "what if" scenario that has traders on edge. Goldman's model shows that if Hormuz flows are disrupted for a total of one month, Brent could average $110 in March and April before gradually falling to $76 by late 2026.

So, to recap: The President sees a revenue opportunity. Iran sees leverage. Goldman Sachs sees a path to $110 oil. And the stock market, for now, sees nothing but trouble.