Here's a situation that's probably more complicated than it looks from the outside: the U.S. and Israel have been conducting military strikes against Iran for nearly two weeks, but according to the latest U.S. intelligence, the Iranian regime is... fine. Or at least, not in any immediate danger of collapsing. That's the consistent analysis from a multitude of recent reports, which say the leadership retains control of the country and the public.
Think about that for a second. The war began with the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. That's a pretty significant event—the top guy is gone. Yet the intelligence suggests the system held. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and interim leaders stepped in, kept things running, and the Assembly of Experts has since declared Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, as the new supreme leader. The clerical machinery, it seems, was built to withstand a shock like this.
This creates a rather awkward problem for President Donald Trump. He's under political pressure at home, partly over rising oil costs, and in a brief interview Wednesday he suggested he wants to end this operation—the biggest U.S. military campaign since 2003—"soon." But if the Iranian leadership is still firmly in place, what's the "win"? It becomes difficult for Washington and Jerusalem to claim a decisive political outcome when the regime you're striking appears intact.
Israeli officials, in private discussions, have reportedly acknowledged there's no certainty this war will topple the clerical government. People familiar with the matter add that conditions inside Iran remain fluid and could change, but the baseline assessment is one of regime stability.
The U.S. and Israeli strikes have targeted air defenses, nuclear facilities, and senior officials. Early on, Trump urged Iranians to "take over your government," though top aides later told reporters that regime change was not the formal objective. The reporting notes it's unclear how the current air campaign alone would bring down the government. Perhaps most notably, the Trump administration has still not ruled out sending U.S. troops into Iran. So the military options might still be expanding, even as the intelligence suggests the political goal is looking increasingly elusive.
In short, the bombs are falling, but the regime is standing. And that leaves everyone wondering: what's the endgame here?
