So, you know how sometimes a stock can have a bad day for its own special reasons, while the whole market is having a bad day for completely different reasons? That’s what happened to Carvana Co. (CVNA) on Thursday. The online used-car retailer’s shares shed about 5%, pressured by a couple of its own issues, while broader indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also slid on fears that Middle East tensions could disrupt oil supply.
Let’s start with Carvana’s personal problems. Short sellers—those investors betting the stock will go down—are getting more skeptical. In the latest reporting period, the number of shares sold short climbed from 14.84 million to 15.17 million. That means about 12.1% of the shares available for public trading are being bet against. If all those short sellers decided to close their positions at once, it would take nearly four days of average trading volume to do it without causing a massive spike in the stock price. That’s a decent-sized overhang.
This skepticism is lingering despite what looked like a pretty good earnings report last quarter. Carvana posted fourth-quarter revenue of $5.60 billion, beating analyst estimates of $5.26 billion. Earnings came in at $4.22 per share. The company sold 163,522 vehicles, a 43% jump from a year ago, and total revenue surged 58% annually. So, what’s the problem? Well, a report from Reuters in late February highlighted that costs for inspecting, repairing, and detailing vehicles were higher than expected. Rising retail depreciation also squeezed the profit on each car sold. In other words, the top line looked great, but the costs to get those cars ready to sell are eating into the economics, and that’s weighing on investor minds.
Looking at the charts, the stock’s recent action shows some short-term weakness. It’s currently trading 9.9% below its 20-day simple moving average and 17.9% below its 100-day average. That suggests a bearish trend in the near-to-medium term. However, it’s important to remember that over the past 12 months, the shares are still up a whopping 68.34%. The stock is sitting at $316.89, which is well above its 52-week low of $148.25 but also well below its high of $486.89. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.53, which is in neutral territory—not oversold, not overbought.
All eyes are now on the next financial update, scheduled for May 6. Analysts are expecting earnings per share of $1.55 (up from $1.51 a year ago) and revenue of $6.01 billion (up from $4.23 billion). The stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39.2x, which indicates investors are still paying a premium for expected growth.
Despite the recent slide and cost concerns, Wall Street analysts largely maintain a positive view. The stock carries a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $438.68. That said, several firms have recently tweaked their targets lower: Citigroup maintained a Buy but lowered its target to $465.00, Barclays kept an Overweight rating but cut its target to $450.00, and DA Davidson held a Neutral rating while lowering its target to $320.00.
So, Carvana’s story right now is a bit of a tug-of-war. On one side, you have strong sales growth and bullish analyst targets. On the other, you have rising short interest and worries that profitability might be harder to achieve than previously thought. It’s a classic case of the market trying to figure out if the growth story is worth the current price, especially when the costs of doing business start to attract more attention.












