So, BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) stock has taken a little breather after a strong run. That happens. But according to one analyst, this isn't a sign to head for the exits—it's a chance to load up your cart.

D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Baker is keeping a constructive view on the warehouse club, maintaining a Buy rating even as the stock gives back some of its impressive year-to-date gains. In fact, he's so constructive that he raised his price forecast to $114 from $110. The math behind that? It's based on 24 times his earnings-per-share estimate for 2027.

The core of the bullish argument is pretty simple: people really like shopping at BJ's. The company ended last year with just over 8 million members, up from a bit above 7.5 million the year before. That's not just more people signing up; it's also more members per individual club. Even better, the mix is shifting toward the more lucrative, higher-tier memberships, which now make up 42% of the total. That's up from 39% about 18 months ago.

Here's the fun part for investors: that 42% still lags behind Costco Wholesale Corp.'s (COST) penetration of roughly 48% for its executive membership. In the warehouse club world, getting members to upgrade is like finding money on the floor—it boosts membership fee income and increases the lifetime value of each customer. So, there's a clear path for BJ's to keep climbing that ladder.

The sales momentum backs up the membership story. Comparable sales improved, delivering the company's best two-year stack in eight quarters and the strongest three-year stacked comp since the first quarter of 2025. And in a world where everyone talks about online shopping, customer traffic at BJ's physical stores increased for the 16th consecutive quarter. The model, it seems, is working.

Now, let's talk about the future. BJ's isn't just sitting in its existing clubs. With stores in only 21 states, there's a lot of map left to color in. Baker sees significant "whitespace" for expansion, and the company has been successfully opening new clubs in both familiar and new markets. This store growth is a central part of the long-term thesis.

Of course, it's not all sunshine and bulk-sized snacks. Baker did flag a few near-term clouds. Merchandise margins dipped by 50 basis points, partly because sales were stronger in lower-margin categories like consumer electronics. February sales also got off to a slower start than planned, with weather playing the role of the uninvited guest. Furthermore, the company's earnings guidance for 2026 and the first quarter came in below what the Street was expecting, partly due to higher costs associated with opening new stores in Texas.

Despite these headwinds, Baker expects BJ's to keep executing well, pointing to its history of "beating and raising" guidance. His current forecasts are for 2026 EPS of $4.54 and 2027 EPS of $4.79.

The bottom line? The stock has pulled back, but the analyst sees the fundamental story—membership growth, sales momentum, and expansion potential—as intact and compelling. So, if you believe in the warehouse club model and BJ's place in it, the current price might just be a sale worth shopping.