So, here we are again. The market opens with a bit of a hangover. After a positive close on Wednesday, U.S. stock futures decided to take a step back on Thursday morning. It’s the classic two-steps-forward, one-step-back dance, and the music this time is being played by geopolitics.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains the primary driver of significant market volatility. Hostilities involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran have escalated throughout the region, marking a sixth consecutive day of unrest with no clear end in sight. When the world’s most volatile region heats up, markets tend to get the jitters.

But wait, there might be a flicker of light. The New York Times reports that the Iranian leadership has initiated contact with former President Donald Trump to explore potential ceasefire negotiations. It’s an unusual diplomatic channel, to say the least, but in markets, the mere hint of de-escalation can sometimes be enough to shift sentiment. For now, though, the dominant mood is caution.

Meanwhile, in the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.11%, with the two-year at 3.56%. Traders, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, are pricing in a 97.3% likelihood that the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. The Fed seems to be in a holding pattern, watching the data—and possibly the headlines from the Middle East.

Here’s how the major indices were shaping up in premarket trading:

The popular ETFs that track these benchmarks followed suit. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 0.099% at $684.45, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, declined 0.11% to $610.10.

Stocks Making Moves

Against this backdrop of geopolitical anxiety, individual company stories provided plenty of action. Earnings season continues to deliver surprises.

Broadcom

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) jumped 6.66% in premarket trading. The chipmaker reported better-than-expected financial results for its fiscal first quarter after the close on Wednesday. It’s a nice reminder that even when the macro picture is cloudy, strong company fundamentals can still shine through. Market data indicated AVGO had a weaker price trend in the short and medium terms but a strong trend in the long term, with a solid quality score.

Veeva Systems

Over in cloud software for life sciences, Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) rose 11.32%. The company reported an upbeat fourth-quarter and issued fiscal year 2027 guidance that came in above analyst estimates. According to market data, VEEV shows a weak price trend over the medium and long terms but a strong trend in the short term, with a moderate value ranking.

Costco Wholesale

Warehouse retail giant Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) edged down 0.17% ahead of its own earnings report after the closing bell. Analysts expect it to report earnings of $4.56 per share on revenue of $69.26 billion. Market data suggests COST maintains a strong price trend across the short, medium, and long terms, though it carries a poor value ranking.

Webull

It wasn’t all good news. Trading platform Webull Corp. (BULL) was down 3.13% after it missed its quarterly profit targets. On the call, CEO Anthony Denier placed his bets on the company's AI assistant, named Vega, to drive future growth. Market data indicates BULL maintains a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a moderate value score.

Trade Desk

And then there was the big winner of the morning: Trade Desk Inc. (TTD). The advertising technology company surged 16.85%. Why the massive move? A Securities and Exchange Commission filing disclosed that President and CEO Jeffrey Terry Green acquired a whopping 6,398,089 Class A common shares between March 2 and March 5. When the boss puts that much of his own money on the line, investors tend to take notice. Market data, however, shows TTD maintains a weak price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a poor quality ranking—a stark contrast to the morning's bullish sentiment.

Looking Back at Wednesday

To understand the dip in futures, it helps to remember where we came from. On Wednesday, the market actually had a pretty good day. Consumer discretionary, information technology, and communication services stocks led most S&P 500 sectors to a positive close, though energy and consumer staples bucked the trend.

What the Pros Are Saying

In its March 2026 commentary, asset management giant BlackRock laid out a view that’s cautiously optimistic yet intensely tactical. The firm’s outlook is driven largely by what it calls "mega forces," with artificial intelligence sitting squarely at the top of the list.

BlackRock strategists expect the U.S. labor market to remain resilient, which will likely reaffirm "the Fed’s new hawkish tone" and keep interest rates on hold in the near term. They acknowledge the S&P 500 recently faced its "worst month in nearly a year" due to inflation concerns and AI-related volatility, but BlackRock remains overweight on U.S. equities.

The argument? "Strong corporate earnings, driven in part by the AI theme," are supported by a favorable macro backdrop and reduced policy uncertainty. However, they issue a clear warning: traditional, "static strategic asset allocation no longer suffices."

Instead, they suggest investors need a scenario-based approach to navigate potential outcomes ranging from an "AI productivity boom" to a "higher risk premium for U.S. assets" caused by geopolitical fragmentation. The bottom line from BlackRock: be granular. "The AI buildout keeps rolling on," they note, while staying alert to "sticky inflation" that may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates in the future.

On the Economic Calendar

Thursday brings a fresh batch of data for investors to digest:

• At 8:30 a.m. ET, we'll get initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 28, the fourth quarter U.S. productivity report, and January’s import price index data.
• Later, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at 1:15 p.m. ET, followed by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee at 7:00 p.m. ET. Any hints on the policy outlook will be closely watched.

Around the Markets

Beyond stocks, other assets were on the move. Crude oil futures, sensitive to Middle East supply risks, were trading higher in the early New York session, up 2.41% to hover around $76.46 per barrel.

Gold, the classic safe haven, rose 0.62% to about $5,173.35 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.12% higher at the 98.8850 level.

In crypto, Bitcoin was trading 0.91% higher at $72,514.17 per coin over the last 24 hours.

Globally, equity markets offered a brighter picture. Asian markets closed higher on Thursday, with gains in China’s CSI 300, Australia's ASX 200, Japan's Nikkei 225, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, South Korea's Kospi, and India’s Nifty 50 indices. European markets were also higher in early trade, seemingly shrugging off some of the concerns weighing on U.S. futures.

So, it’s a mixed bag. Geopolitical risk is pulling one way, strong earnings and the relentless AI narrative are pulling another. For investors, it’s another day of weighing the headlines against the spreadsheets.