Here's a classic Wall Street puzzle: a company reports quarterly earnings that beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines, and the stock... tanks. That's what happened to GitLab Inc. (GTLB) on Wednesday. The developer tools platform posted solid fourth-quarter numbers, but shares dropped more than 7%. The culprit? A look ahead that has analysts calling the next fiscal year a "transition year"—which is often financial code for "buckle up, it might get bumpy."
Let's break down the disconnect. For the quarter, GitLab's total revenue hit $260 million, up 23% year-over-year and above consensus estimates. Subscription revenue, which makes up 90% of the total, grew even faster at 26%. Profitability improved, with non-GAAP operating margins expanding to 20.2%. By most standard measures, this was a good report.
But the future, specifically fiscal year 2027, is where the story gets complicated. Management's revenue guidance of $1.099 billion to $1.118 billion implies growth of 15% to 17%. That's a notable deceleration from the 26% growth the company just posted for fiscal 2026. Furthermore, the company guided to an operating margin of about 12% for the year, well below the Street's expectation of over 16%. In short, they're telling investors to expect slower growth and lower profits in the year ahead as they invest heavily in a turnaround plan.
This outlook prompted a wave of price target cuts from Wall Street analysts, even as most kept their Buy ratings intact. The message was consistent: the quarter was strong, but the guidance reset is real.
Guggenheim's Howard Ma maintained a Buy but cut his target from $60 to $50. He noted that while revenue beat, guidance came in about $15 million below consensus at the midpoint. He also pointed out that net revenue retention growth decelerated another percentage point sequentially to 118%, and some enterprise deals slipped.
BTIG analyst Nick Altmann also reiterated a Buy, lowering his target from $32 to $30. He highlighted a mixed picture in bookings: while GitLab recorded its highest net-new annual recurring revenue ever, underlying metrics like current remaining performance obligation growth moderated to 24% from 28% the prior quarter. The bigger concern for him was the margin guidance, which implies around 500 basis points of compression as the company spends.
The most dramatic cut came from Canaccord Genuity's Kingsley Crane, who slashed his price target from $70 to $40 while keeping a Buy rating. He called the 15%-17% revenue growth guidance "a material deceleration" and stated plainly, "FY27 will likely remain a transitional year from a revenue generation standpoint."
Needham's Mike Cikos (target cut from $50 to $32, Buy rating) echoed the transition theme, calling fiscal 2027 "a rebuilding year." He said management's five-step plan to "reinvigorate growth" is the right strategy—focused on areas like improving sales coverage—but cautioned "it will take time to play out" and will come with higher-than-expected expenses.
Rosenblatt Securities analyst Blair Abernethy (target cut from $55 to $43, Buy rating) noted softer performance in the U.S. market and continued delays in the government sector. He also mentioned that the rollout of GitLab's new Duo Agent AI platform has begun but is unlikely to significantly boost revenues in fiscal 2027.
Even the more neutral voice in the room, Cantor Fitzgerald's Jonathan Ruykhaver (Neutral rating, $30 target), acknowledged the shift. He said the "tone of the call positioned FY27 as a rebuilding year, with management focused on scaling sales capacity, reaccelerating first orders, and investing in its Duo Agent Platform to support longer-term growth."
So, what's an investor to make of this? GitLab is essentially saying: "We had a great quarter, but we need to spend money to fix some things and build for the future, so next year's numbers won't look as pretty." Wall Street is responding by saying: "We believe you, and we think the long-term plan makes sense, but we have to re-price the stock for this period of lower growth and margins."
The stock's decline reflects that immediate repricing. It's the market's way of discounting the promised future payoff against the certain near-term costs. For now, GitLab shares are caught in the transition.












