Sometimes in the stock market, you get a classic recipe for fireworks: take one company that a lot of people love to hate, add a dash of surprisingly good news, and watch the sparks fly. That's basically what happened with Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) on Tuesday.
The hydrogen fuel cell company's stock jumped more than 27% after it did two things Wall Street wasn't fully expecting: it reported fourth-quarter revenue that beat analyst estimates, and it announced a new CEO. But the real fuel for this rocket (pun intended) was likely the huge crowd of investors who had bet heavily that this exact thing wouldn't happen.
The company appointed Jose Luis Crespo as its new Chief Executive Officer, effective March 2, 2026, calling it the start of a "next phase of disciplined growth and focused execution." That's corporate-speak for "we're trying to make money now," which is a shift the market seemed to appreciate.
But here's the twist that makes this more than just an earnings pop. Plug Power is what traders call a "highly shorted" stock. Going into this report, a staggering 25.05% of its publicly traded shares—that's about 346.6 million shares—were sold short. When you short a stock, you're borrowing shares to sell them, hoping the price falls so you can buy them back cheaper and pocket the difference. It's a bet that the stock will go down.
So, when Plug Power reported revenue of $225 million, modestly ahead of consensus, and the stock started rising, it created a problem for all those short sellers. As the price goes up, their bets start losing money. To limit their losses, they have to buy shares to close out their short positions. That buying pushes the price up even more, forcing other short sellers to buy, and so on. This is called a short squeeze, and it can turn a modest rally into a moonshot. Session volume hit about 182.2 million shares, nearly double the 100-day average, which is the kind of frantic trading you see when shorts are scrambling to cover.
Wall Street analysts, however, were watching the spectacle with measured glasses. Both JP Morgan's Bill Peterson and BTIG's Gregory Lewis kept their Neutral ratings on the stock. They saw progress, but weren't ready to declare the turnaround complete.
JP Morgan: Margins Are Up, But The Road Is Long
Peterson noted that Plug not only beat revenue expectations but actually met its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance—no small feat in what he called a challenging market. The real headline for him was that the company generated positive gross margins for the first time in several years. "Management refocused and resized the business," he said, and it's starting to show in the numbers.
He sees the company's material handling business (think hydrogen forklifts for warehouses) as the main growth engine, helped by investments from key "pedestal" customers and the renewal of Investment Tax Credits in the U.S. Over in Europe, projects are slowly moving toward final decisions in 2026 and 2027, backed by government policies.
Plug's management reiterated its big goal: turning EBITDA positive in the fourth quarter of 2026. Peterson thinks that's plausible if current trends hold. The company's cash burn is lower, thanks to those better margins and planned asset sales. He believes management's expectation that they are "fully funded through fiscal 2026" is reasonable, assuming the market doesn't take a turn for the worse.
His forecast for fiscal 2026 revenue is now around $800 million (down from a prior estimate of $839 million), with about two-thirds of those sales expected in the second half of the year. It's progress, but the growth is back-end loaded.
BTIG: It's All About The Cash
Lewis also highlighted the revenue beat, noting the stock was up about 8% in after-hours trading immediately after the report. He pointed out that while equipment revenue was weak, stronger sales in other segments picked up the slack. Crucially, all segments improved their margins, pushing the overall gross margin to about 2%. That might not sound like much, but for Plug, it meant hitting management's target of ending the year with a positive gross margin.
For Lewis, the story now is liquidity—making sure the company has enough cash to reach its goals. Plug has a plan. It recently agreed to sell its New York green hydrogen site to a data center developer for about $133 million, a deal expected to close early in the second quarter of 2026. Furthermore, management aims to generate more than $275 million of additional liquidity in the first half of 2026 by monetizing electricity rights tied to two other assets.
On the operational side, the company expects to have up to 40 tons per day of its own hydrogen production, plus a 30-ton-per-day supply agreement, to stay ahead of customer demand. Beyond asset sales, the plan to reduce cash burn includes cost-cutting and lower capital spending in 2026.
The long-term targets remain ambitious: positive EBITDA in Q4 2026, and overall profitability by the end of 2028. Lewis thinks the material handling business will be key to expanding margins next year, helped by customers renewing their fleets and potential tailwinds from simplified tax incentives.
