Here's a classic market puzzle: a company reports fantastic earnings, beats expectations, and gives optimistic guidance for the next quarter. And then its stock goes down. That's the story for Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) on Tuesday.
The maker of high-speed connectivity systems for AI data centers saw its shares drop over 14% in premarket trading. This happened after it reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.07 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 95 cents. Revenue hit $407.01 million, also topping the forecast of $400.23 million.
CEO Bill Brennan highlighted the explosive growth, noting revenue increased by over 50% sequentially and a whopping 200% year-over-year. "With continued growth in AECs and ICs and the announcement of three new multi-billion dollar TAM expansions through ZeroFlap optics, ALCs, and OmniConnect, we remain confident in our ability to innovate and grow in the expanding AI infrastructure landscape," Brennan said.
The company isn't slowing down. For the fourth quarter, it expects revenue between $425 million and $435 million, above the analyst estimate of $422.61 million. It also expects an adjusted gross margin between 64% and 66%. On Monday, Credo also announced it acquired CoMira Solutions for an undisclosed sum. The deal brings specialized semiconductor IP to support new system-level solutions for AI architectures.
So, with all this good news, why is the stock falling? The answer seems to lie not with Credo itself, but with everything around it. The broader market took a hit on the previous trading day, with the Nasdaq down 2.16% and the S&P 500 falling 1.66%. When the tide goes out, even boats with strong engines can get pulled back. Credo's drop appears to be a case of a strong company caught in weak market currents.
The technical picture adds some color to the sell-off. The stock is currently trading 9.8% below its 20-day simple moving average and 4.1% below its 100-day average, signaling a bearish short-to-medium-term trend. Over the past year, shares have decreased significantly and are closer to their 52-week lows than highs.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 44.45, which is neutral territory—neither overbought nor oversold. However, the MACD indicator is at 0.15, below its signal line of 0.22, indicating bearish pressure. This mix of neutral RSI and bearish MACD suggests conflicting momentum, a sign for traders to be cautious. Key technical levels to watch are resistance at $105.00 and support at $95.00.
Despite the recent price action, Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish. The stock carries a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $167.23. Recent analyst actions include Needham maintaining a Buy rating with a $220 target, Roth Capital maintaining a Buy but lowering its target to $200, and Rosenblatt initiating coverage with a Neutral rating and a $170 target.
Credo Technology shares were down 14.15% at $98.06 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to market data. It's a reminder that in the stock market, a company's fundamental strength and its stock price don't always move in lockstep, especially when the overall market decides to have a bad day.
