So, oil prices are spiking because of the war with Iran, and the government says it has a plan. That's the short version of what Secretary of State Marco Rubio laid out Monday, trying to calm nerves as energy costs climb and a key shipping lane gets shut down.
In a press briefing, Rubio indicated the Trump administration saw this coming—the surge in oil prices following U.S. strikes—and has a strategy ready to "alleviate the impact." The plan is supposed to start rolling out Tuesday, handled by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. It's the kind of announcement you make when people are starting to worry about their gas bills.
And they have reason to worry. Crude oil futures have jumped to their highest levels since early 2025. When last checked, WTI Crude April 26 futures were up 3.47% at $73.73 a barrel. The immediate catalyst? Iranian state media said Tehran had closed the Strait of Hormuz and warned that any vessel trying to pass would be "attacked or set on fire." That's not great for global shipping.
Analysts are putting numbers on the risk. Goldman Sachs (GS) estimates an $18-per-barrel risk premium—about 25% of current prices—is being priced in for a prolonged blockade of the strait. Meanwhile, Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at Ebury, told MarketDash that a complete shutdown of Iran's main shipping route is "the biggest risk to markets" and could push oil futures toward $100 a barrel. So, the plan Rubio is hinting at better be a good one.
Why Strike Now? The 'Unacceptable Risk'
Rubio spent time explaining why the U.S. felt it had to act. He said the administration expected a counterattack from Iran in response to any aggression, including potential action from Israel. The decision to strike preemptively was about minimizing casualties. "It's an unacceptable risk," Rubio said.
He pointed to Iran's rapid missile production, even under sanctions, and warned that within a year to a year and a half, Iran could potentially "threaten global security" with its arsenal of short-range missiles and drones. He's previously stated Iran has weapons "solely designed" to attack the U.S.
And if you think things are tense now, Rubio says it's going to get tougher. "The next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now," he stated. That's not exactly a de-escalation promise.
Vice President JD Vance, appearing on Fox News' "Jesse Watters Primetime," added context on the diplomatic side. He said nuclear talks with Iran collapsed after U.S. officials concluded Tehran's claims "did not pass the smell test," leading President Donald Trump to authorize the strikes.
Vance elaborated: Iran defended uranium enrichment as a matter of national pride for civilian energy use. But U.S. officials questioned why Tehran was building deeply buried facilities, 70-80 feet underground, and enriching uranium to levels around 60% purity. That's "far beyond civilian needs" and well above limits set under the 2015 nuclear deal. He stressed that Iran's enrichment "heightened proliferation fears." In other words, the U.S. looked at the evidence and decided the risk of waiting was too high.
So, you've got a closed strait, spiking oil prices, a government promising a plan, and officials warning the conflict is about to enter a "more punishing" phase. It's a lot for a Monday. Now we wait to see what Tuesday's plan actually entails—and whether it can hold back a potential $100 oil market.
